NFL Week 9 Player Props: 3 Best Bets for Sunday

Last week was a quiet 84-yard day, as he didn’t score a TD, nor did he have a catch of more than 40 yards, which he did in the previous three starts. Last week it was DeVonta Smith’s turn to shine with a long touchdown bomb, but the betting is Brown will get one this week.

Of all recipients in the N.F.L with at least 15 targets, Brown is averaging the second-most receiving yards per game, trailing only Nico Collins. The great thing about AJ Brown is his ability to play explosively, as he is No. 1 in both yards per route and yards per target.

This is also a great game against a terrible Jaguars passing defense. The Jaguars have the worst defense in the world N.F.Laccording to DVOA, and they have allowed the third-most passing yards per game. Brown is also phenomenal against man coverage, which the Jaguars are running at the second-highest rate in the league.

Of all receivers to run at least 10 routes against man coverage, Brown has done so the highest yards per route. As long as the Jaguars can keep up even a little bit, Brown should have a big game.

Joe Flacco o233.5 Pass. Yards (-114) FanDuel

Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings, 8:20 PM ET

Before the Sunday Night Football game, we like Flacco to go over his passing yards prop.

Some of this goes back to when he played for different teams, but the reality is that wherever Flacco goes and whatever team he plays for, he passes for some yards. He specifically accomplished this in one of his two starts this year, but he smoked the over with 359 passing yards in a plus game against the Jaguars.

Last year, he exceeded that number in all six of his starts, including the playoffs, and reached 300 passing yards in five of the six starts. The reality is that when Flacco plays football, he consistently throws the ball a ton and piles up a ton of yards.

Now he’ll face a good Vikings defense, but one that allows a ton of passing yards. Minnesota is currently allowing the second-most passing yards per game on the year.

Since Week 2, they have allowed 300.8 passing yards per game, second-highest in the N.F.L. Look for Flacco to throw the ball early and often on Sunday nights.

De’Von Achane o4.5 Receptions (+115) BetMGM

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills, 1:00 PM ET

In the three games that Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has started, Achane has seven, seven and six receptions. You can’t really take anything from the non-Tagovailoa games as the Dolphins are a very different offense without their QB.

If we just look at the three games we just mentioned specifically, that is, just to remind you, every game Tagovailoa has started this season, Achane would have a target percentage of 18.4 percent (second on the Dolphins) and a target figure per route. of 0.39.

With all of his targets coming out of the backfield, he has a 95.2 percent catch rate.

For context, if we extrapolate these numbers to the entire season, that would give him a higher target per route than every single receiver in the region. N.F.L except Malik Nabers.

This is also a plus for the running back receiving props in general against the Bills. Throughout the season, the Bills have allowed the most receiving yards to RBs in the N.F.L and the most receptions on the most targets.

It’s clear the team plans to get their running back involved in the passing game when they play the Bills, and Achane had seven receptions against the Bills in this exact matchup, and he only needs five to cash in on this play .

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