Why the most important X-factor for victory could be on the sidelines

The 1-7 Carolina Panthers host the 2-6 New Orleans Saints this afternoon in a disappointing game between two disappointing teams. New Orleans holds a 32-28 all-time advantage among these teams and has won 12 of the last 16 meetings, including a 47-10 drubbing on opening weekend. That includes a 15-14 record in Carolina, where the Saints have won five of their last seven trips.

With the recent offensive struggles, a quick look might conclude that the Saints would have to rely on their defense to break their six-game losing streak. Against a Carolina offense that ranks 29th or worse in points scored, total yards, passing production and third down percentage, that makes sense. It can also be a dangerous assumption.

New Orleans enters Week 9 with a pathetic defense. The Saints rank 32nd in total yards allowed, 28th against both the pass and run, average last per rush and have one of the fewest sacks in the league. Perhaps most inexcusable was that the defense was relatively healthy until the last few weeks. Now the Saints come into this game without three of their top four cornerbacks.

Yes, the Panthers have a terrible offense. This is also a Saints defense that allowed a 100-yard receiving game to players like JuJu Smith-Schuster, nearly 200 scrimmage yards against Sean Tucker, nearly 600 yards of offense against Tampa Bay, 225 on the ground against Denver, and were scorched by a Kansas City team without their top two wideouts and running backs.

Believe it or not, New Orleans might have to beat Carolina with their offense. It’s a unit that started getting healthy last week with the return of Chris Olave, Taysom Hill and two offensive linemen. This week, quarterback Derek Carr also returns after a three-game absence with injuries. However, the Saints then lost running backs Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams, along with WR Bub Means in last week’s loss.

Still, with their quarterback back, we could see a more open offense in New Orleans. It can come down to play-calling and designing game plans. That would mean New Orleans’ offensive coaches could be just as important to a potential victory as the players on the field.

Saints fans were ready to elect first-year offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak president after his unit exploded for 91 points and 811 yards in the first two games. Over the next six weeks, the offense averaged just 13.2 points and 291 yards per game.

Kubiak’s hands were tied to a point. In addition to Carr, the Saints also had to make do without an excellent versatile weapon, three offensive line starters and two primary backups, no running back depth, and both wideouts for a week. However, there are also questions about Kubiak’s game plans and play-calling.

This was especially evident last week against the Chargers. New Orleans made the right decision in giving fifth-round rookie Spencer Rattler a third straight start. It was also extremely clear that the Saints had absolutely no confidence in Rattler or his supporting cast. If that’s the case, you have to wonder why they didn’t start Jake Haener or a more proven Taysom Hill behind center.

Having Carr back in the lineup would be a huge help. Kubiak will likely feel more confident calling some of the plays that may have been buried in the playbook with the inexperienced Rattler in the lineup.

Additionally, Carr’s experience will also be useful for audibles and hot reads against blitz or complex messaging.

The Saints will still be without one of their best receivers in Rashid Shaheed and best blocker in C Erik McCoy. Even with guards Cesar Ruiz and Lucas Patrick back, the offensive line performed terribly against the Chargers. This needs to change drastically if the Saints want to achieve anything offensively.

Aside from Olave, no other wideout on the roster has made moves for their quarterback. Backfield depth is also a major issue. Kamara is beat up, but Miller and Williams are unavailable to spell him. As a result, we’ll likely see the majority of Hill’s snaps coming out of the backfield.

The establishment of Kamara will be the first order of business. Not only is he the best player on the field, but more importantly, Kubiak’s offense is based on ball control and balance. A good running game not only slows down the opponent’s pass rush, but also sets up play action and potential big plays.

New Orleans also needs more from their tight ends. Juwan Johnson has put up better numbers in recent weeks, catching 21 passes for 168 yards in the last five games. He will need to be consistently productive for Carr, which will open up opportunities for other players in attack.

It would be extremely nice if a wideout other than Olave made a play. We will likely see the newly signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling in a Saints uniform for the first time. Mason Tipton, Cedrick Wilson and Equanimeous St. Brown have combined for just 23 catches and 187 yards. It’s hard for a quarterback to be successful when the receivers simply aren’t open.

Good coaches utilize the best talents of their players. Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Taysom Hill will all be a big part of the game plan this afternoon. Kubiak’s challenge will be to find different ways to make all three effective against a Panthers defense that will certainly focus on the three playmakers.

Movement, play action, use of imaginative formations and moving their best players around the pitch. These are things we saw a lot of success with early on in New Orleans, but not much in recent weeks. Also, designing plays for the other complementary pieces could deter the Panthers and even create space for the expected weapons.

Klint Kubiak hasn’t played a full deck in almost two months. Today, he has his quarterback back, bona fide threats in Kamara, Olave and Hill, and four of his five offensive starters on opening day. It’s still not an ideal situation. Nevertheless, the pressure is on Kubiak and Carr to deliver an effective offensive performance.

With the way New Orleans’ defense has played most of the year and now finds itself with a small secondary today, counting on that unit is a huge gamble. It could come down to Kubiak, Carr, Kamara and the still-short offense ending the longest losing streak the Saints have had in two decades.