The turning point in the Arizona election: the Atlantic Ocean

Sstrange things can happen in the desert. On Wednesday morning in Arizona’s San Tan Valley, I watched Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake come within feet of violating a basic election law.

Lake’s campaign bus had just arrived at an early voting location about an hour southeast of Phoenix. Along the path leading to the police station entrance was a yellow sign that read: 75 FOOT LIMIT. The post warned that election activity above that threshold would constitute a Class 2 misdemeanor. Lake, as was her inclination, waltzed straight to the line with a knowing smile.

I stood nearby, looking happily at Lake and posing for selfies with voters, who seemed surprised to see her. I heard her ask a man if he voted for Donald Trump. In the midst of the campaigns, she found time to attack the media. When I told her what I was reporting for The Atlantic Oceanshe replied, “Oh, is that really a biased outlet?” (Three Reals.) Lake appeared to be performing for the cameras, but there were none at that stop except those from her own campaign. It was just me and three other journalists with notebooks. It doesn’t matter: this was Lake Kari after all. Bombast is her brand.

Lake is perhaps the most MAGA-nominated candidate in the country. (The sentence MAKE ARIZONA GREAT AGAIN is spread across the side of her bus next to a giant image of her head.) Lake, a former local TV news anchor, first gained national attention by promoting Trump’s lies and conspiracy theories about Arizona’s 2020 election results. When she ran for governor of Arizona in 2022, she refused to accept defeat. Most candidates make a name for themselves in a particular subject; election denial has become more defining for Lake than anything else.

Once seen as Trump’s potential 2024 running mate, Lake is now running against Democrat Ruben Gallego for the Arizona Senate seat soon to be vacated by Kyrsten Sinema. The Polling average from RealClearPolitics suggests she could be on the brink of another loss. Trump, meanwhile, appears poised to retake the state at the top of the list. While no outcome is guaranteed, both Democrats faced off Tuesday in a border state plagued by division and extremism And a Republican could emerge victorious.

Such a result would come as a shock to many. It could especially unsettle conspiracy theorists and those who have spent years casting doubt on the validity of the American electoral system. In other words, people like Kari Lake.

Read: In Kari Lake, Trumpism has found its leading lady

That morning, she answered questions from the three other reporters, but looked at me and said, “I’m not talking to your outlet.” So I instead approached one of her surrogates, Richard Grenell, who served as Trump’s ambassador to Germany and later as acting director of national intelligence. Grenell had also resisted The Atlantic Ocean along the lake just minutes before. (Just like Trump did in a recent rallyGrenell claimed without evidence that our editor-in-chief, Jeffrey Goldberg, had “made a lot of things up.”) But now, in a quieter setting offstage, he was willing to talk to me.

I told Grenell that I planned to ask Lake a simple question: Would she commit to accepting next week’s election results? He scoffed at the premise.

“It’s a stupid question to say, ‘Do you accept the outcome of an election?’” Grenell told me. He said she would “of course” accept the outcome if it was a free and fair election. “Let me ask you this question,” he said. ‘Do you think there is no fraud in the elections? Zero fraud?”

Lake saw me talking to Grenell, and as she headed back to her bus, she and I made eye contact. The crowd was smaller now and Lake was chatting in a slightly lower register. Professional wrestlers have a term to describe the performative antagonization of an opponent: kayfabe. But based on what I had seen of Lake up to that point, I didn’t think so ever broke out of her combative personality in her dealings with the media. While we spoke briefly one-on-one, Lake wasn’t exactly friendly, but she was at least willing to let me finish a sentence. I asked her if she would accept the election results.

“A legally organized election? Yes, absolutely,” she said. “One hundred percent.”

But how do you define that?

Suddenly her switch flipped. With a beaming smile and sarcasm in her voice, Lake said, “I will absolutely accept the outcome of the election!” Then she quickly got back on the bus.

George Packer: What will become of American civilization?

Lafter that afternoon, I drove to a strip mall in Maryvale, a predominantly Latino neighborhood in metro Phoenix, to meet Gallego, Lake’s challenger. Between a barbershop and a place where checks could be cashed, Arizona Democrats had set up a bustling field office. In the room, papel picado banners hung from the suspended ceiling, the walls were plastered with posters – Latinos Con Harriz Walz, Democratas Protegen El Aborto – and across the room someone had handwritten a slew of motivational quotes (“If you have the chance to something to make things better and you don’t, then you are wasting your time on earth.” – Roberto Clemente). When I turned around, I saw Gallego talking to the day’s volunteers. He was dressed casually in a short-sleeved button-down and jeans, and he was not surrounded by a large entourage, as Lake had been. He and I found a quiet corner and I asked him the same question I asked Lake: Would he commit to accepting the election results? He didn’t hesitate.

“I trust Arizona’s election system. I trust the Republicans and Democrats who ran the state, and I will trust the results of the election whether they win or lose,” Gallego said.

Right now, the 44-year-old finds himself in a rare position: He knows he has a chance to win over wary Republicans. He’s a Democrat, but as a former Marine he has spoken out on culture war issues such as against the use of Latinxhe could also appeal to some centrists and independents. Above all, he is positioned to win over some of the most sought-after, persuasive voters in the region: Latinos. He sometimes tells a story about how he grew up sleeping on the floor and not having a bed until he went to college. On the stump he often makes comments in both Spanish and English.

What Gallego is not to do is to run a direct campaign on the Democratic party line. When I asked him how he felt about Joe Biden’s comments that Trump supporters are “trash,” he didn’t rush to unequivocally defend the president. “No matter what happens, we should not castigate people for the way they vote,” he said. I also asked him if he expected civil unrest next week, given the chaos that unfolded in Arizona in the previous election. “I really have confidence in the voters of Arizona — Democrats, Republicans and independents — that they are going to vote, and that they are going to keep it civil,” Gallego said. “I hope the politicians will keep it civil and not try to introduce election denial into it, as Kari Lake has done. That is where the danger occurred.”

Gallego had stopped by that office to call for volunteers for a recruitment operation. With him were Senator Mark Kelly and his wife, former Representative Gabby Giffords. That afternoon I asked Kelly what kind of challenges he and his fellow Democrats in Arizona expected after Election Day, and whether he believed Lake (and Trump, for that matter) would accept the outcome of the election. “She shouldKelly said cautiously. “I mean, I don’t expect their behavior to be much different than it was in the 2020 and 2022 elections, though. I mean, I have no reason to to expect That. But you know, you can always dream that maybe they learned a lesson,” he said. “Kari Lake definitely should have learned her lesson.”