The Harris-Trump race is neck and neck, with a significant gender gap

On November 4, 2024By Pranco

WASHINGTON, DC (NBC) – The latest national NBC News poll of the 2024 presidential campaign shows what remains a neck-and-neck contest marked by clashing forces that have both Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump helped in their quest for the White House.

Encouraging Harris: rising Democratic enthusiasm, a 20-point lead over Trump on abortion, and an advantage for Harris in which candidate can better look out for the middle class.
Helping Trump: two-thirds of voters believing the nation is heading in the wrong direction, a positive assessment of Trump’s presidency (especially compared to President Joe Biden’s current performance), and Trump’s double-digit lead on the economy and cost of living.

What also defines this close battle is the intense polarization in this country, including more than Gender gap of 30 points in the voting preferences of men and women, as well as 60% of voters who believe the country will remain divided – regardless of who wins the presidential race.

And what’s also striking about the survey is how little the contest has changed since last month, despite the frenzied campaign activity of the past few weeks and billions of dollars in advertising.

“This is very stable data from where we were in October,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.

“We’ve grown further apart and picked our corner,” McInturff added. “Each side is as closed as it can be, and they don’t budge or move.”

NBC News elections director John Lapinski explains how the NBC News Decision Desk will call the race.

All told, the poll shows Harris getting support from 49% of registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, while Trump gets an identical 49%. Only 2% of voters say they are undecided.

This is essentially unchanged from the NBC News poll in Octoberwhen the two candidates were deadlocked with 48% each.

An expanded vote including third-party candidates has Trump at 47% and Harris at 46%, with a combined 7% supporting other candidates or undecided — again unchanged from October.

Since close elections are often determined by which party best delivers its voters, the NBC News poll also provides a snapshot of what could happen depending on different turnout scenarios.

Something more favorable environment for Republicans – meaning higher turnout among men, white voters and voters without a college degree by a few percentage points – Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 50%-48%.

But inside a more favorable turnout environment for the Democrats – which means a slight increase women, white voters with college degrees, and voters of color coming to the polls – these poll results show Harris leading Trump by 3 points, 50%-47%.

All of these results fall within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

But because of the nation’s Electoral College system, the presidential election will ultimately be decided by what happens in key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And the latest polls from those states also show that the margins are razor-thin.

A gender gap of 34 points

At 49%-49%, the NBC News poll results are as close as possible. But huge differences in support for candidates remain across groups.

The poll shows Harris has her biggest advantages over Trump among black voters (87% to 9%), younger voters aged 18 to 29 (57% to 41%) and white voters with a college degree (55% to 43%).

Trump, meanwhile, leads among rural voters (75%-23%), white voters (56%-42%) and whites without a college degree (64%-34%).

But what still stands out as one of the defining features of the election is the huge gender gap between Harris and Trump, with women supporting Harris by a margin of 16 points (57%-41%) and men supporting Trump by 18 points. (58%-40%).

This 34-point net gender gap is wider than the 30-point gap the poll showed in the October poll.

Harris, meanwhile, has an 8-point lead among independent voters, 51% to 43%. Yet among Latino voters, she is only ahead by 9 points, 53% to 44%, although the sample size here is small and the margin of error is considerably larger compared to the overall survey.

Harris leads on abortion, middle class; Trump is leading the way on the cost of living and the border

On the issues and presidential traits, Harris maintains a significant advantage on abortion, giving Trump a 20-point lead over whichever candidate can better address the issue.

Harris is also ahead of Trump by 9 points, 51% to 42%, which candidate looks better at the middle class.

By contrast, Trump has double-digit leads on which candidate will handle the economy better (51% to 41%) and the cost of living (52% to 40%). He also maintains his 25-point lead on securing the border and controlling immigration.

But voters are essentially divided over which candidate better represents change (46% choose Harris, 41% choose Trump), and they are divided over who is competent and effective (with 47% saying Trump and 45% saying Harris).

That’s a slight reversal from October, when 48% of voters said Harris was competent and effective, compared to 43% for Trump.

Biden remains a hindrance for Democrats

The NBC News poll shows 41% of registered voters approve of President Joe Biden’s job, compared to 58% who say they disapprove.

That’s down slightly from the 43% who approved of his job in October.

By comparison, when voters were asked to rate Trump’s time in office, 48% approved of the former president’s job, compared to 51% who disapproved — identical to what the poll showed last month.

And when asked what worries them more – Harris continuing the same approach as Biden or Trump continuing the same approach from his first term as president – 41% of voters say they are more concerned that Harris is taking the path of Biden follows, compared to 40% who are more concerned about Trump repeating the actions of his term.

Another 14% of voters say neither is a concern.

54% say they have already voted

The poll, which was active through Saturday evening, also shows that 54% of registered voters say they have already voted, plus another 11% who say they plan to vote early.

Among these combined 65% of early voters, Harris leads Trump by 7 points in the head-to-head race, from 53% to 46%. That’s a significant change from the last NBC News poll of 2020, when Biden led Trump by more than 20 points among these voters.

Among the 33% of voters who say they will wait for voters to vote on Election Day, Trump has a 16-point lead, 56% to 40%. it’s Trump 56%, Harris 40%.

That compares with Trump’s nearly 30 points among these voters on Election Day four years ago.

60% believe the nation will remain divided

Regardless of who wins the presidential election, 60% of registered voters in the poll say the United States will remain divided, compared to 28% who think the country will be more united.

Other findings in the poll

Harris and Trump score almost identically in terms of popularity: 43% of voters view Harris positively and 50% view her negatively (-7 net). That is compared to Trump’s score of 42% positive, 51% negative (-9).

And when it comes to the battle for Congress, 47% of voters say they would prefer Democrats control Congress, while 46% want Republicans in charge. The two parties were tied on this question last month – each at 47%.

The NBC News poll was conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 2 among 1,000 registered voters — most of whom were contacted by cell phone — and has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.

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