Harris leads crucial swing state in new poll

Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in the New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points), a slight dip in Harris’ three-point lead in a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College pair polls released on October 12.

Harris leads in three other polls released last week, Trump is ahead in three, and two others show them tied.

Harris is up two points, 50%-48%, in Marist questionnaire that includes undecided voters leaning toward a candidate (margin of error 3.4 points), and by one point 48%-47%, in a Washington Post poll (margin of error 3.1 points), both released Friday, with the Post poll representing no movement in the race since the September survey.

Trump is up 50%-49% two-way Fox News poll of likely Pennsylvania voters out Wednesday — well within the three-point margin of error — and he has a 47%-46% lead in a Quinnipiac poll of likely voters released Wednesday (margin of error 2.1 points, and respondents could choose other candidates).

Harris also has a narrow lead of 49%-48% in a cooperative election study poll released this week (3,685 respondents, surveyed as part of a national survey of universities conducted by YouGov).

Meanwhile, the race is dead, even at 48%-48% in a CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters left on Wednesday – while just 8% said they are undecided or might change their minds – and CBS/YouGov found a similar tie of 49%-49% in a likely voter poll released Tuesday.

Turnout could play a role: Trump had a 47%-46% lead in one Monmouth poll of all registered voters was released Wednesday, but the race is tied at 48%-48% among respondents who are extremely motivated to vote, with Harris leading 48%-47% among people who have voted in most or all since 2014 general election have voted (margin of error 3.8 points).

The polling averages are close, with Trump’s narrow lead: Trump leads by 0.2 points in Pennsylvania in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Pennsylvania has more electoral votes, 19, than any other battleground, and Pennsylvanians routinely pick winners, voting for ten of the last twelve White House winners. The candidate who won Pennsylvania has also won Michigan and Wisconsin (the three states together are known as the “blue wall”) over the past eight elections.

According to statistician Nate Silver, Pennsylvania is far more likely to tip the election than any other state election prediction modelwhich also showed that both candidates have a better than 85% chance of winning the election if they secure Pennsylvania.

Trump became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since the 1980s in the 2016 election, and Biden — who is originally from Scranton, Pennsylvania — reversed the trend in 2020, with the state putting him over the 270-vote threshold needed to win the elections. Secondary school

Pennsylvania is also important to Trump personally, as he was shot there while speaking at a rally near Butler on July 14.

The state has a high share of working-class white voters, with nearly 75% of the population identifying as non-Hispanic white — a demographic that Trump has generally performed well with, although Harris has made gains among white voters compared to performance of Biden in 2020. , according to the latest figures, trailing Trump by just three points nationally PBS News/NPR/Marist Pollafter Trump won the demographic by 12 points in 2020.