More than three in four members of the Duke community plan to vote for Kamala Harris, The Chronicle’s campus elections report shows

Editor’s note: This story is part of a series based on a survey of Duke community members conducted by The Chronicle from Oct. 16-18. You can read more about our methodology and limitations hereor read all our investigative coverage here.

The Chronicle surveyed Duke students, faculty and staff about their voting plans ahead of the 2024 general election.

We found that more than 80% of respondents plan to vote this election cycle, and more than 75% plan to vote for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the presidential election. The majority of respondents identified as liberal, a trend that was consistent across all demographic groups.

Registration status

More than four in five members of the Duke community plan to vote in the U.S. presidential election, and nearly all were already registered at the time of the survey.

About 88.74% of respondents said they planned to vote in the 2024 presidential election, compared to just 2.94% who said they did not plan to vote. Another 8.33% responded that they do not plan to vote because of their citizenship.

Respondents were asked what their current voter registration status was for the 2024 general election. About 87.37% of respondents stated that they were already registered, and 2.45% of respondents were eligible to register but had not yet done so at the time of the survey. About 8.92% of respondents were ineligible to vote due to citizenship or age. About 1.27% of respondents were unsure of their registration status.

Of respondents registered to vote in North Carolina, 42.9% were originally from the Tar Heel State. Californians made up the second largest cohort of North Carolinian registrants at 6.09%, followed by New York at 5.17% and Texas at 4.77%.

Across all racial groups, a significant majority of respondents were registered to vote. Notably, 17.54% of Asian respondents were ineligible to vote due to citizenship. According to one Duke Facts Dashboard published by the university, the top three home countries for students as of fall 2023 were China, India and South Korea.

About 90.89% of female respondents were registered to vote, compared to 83.74% of men. A higher percentage of male respondents were ineligible to vote: 11.57%. About 3.69% of male respondents reported being eligible to vote but not registered at the time of the survey, compared to 1.55% of women.

You can view the breakdown of registration status by political identity at Tableau.

Political affiliation

Respondents were asked about their political identifications, ranging from “very liberal” to “very conservative.” About 30.56% of respondents identified as ‘very liberal’, 41.53% identified as ‘somewhat liberal’, 18.41% identified as moderate or centrist, 7.44% identified as ‘somewhat conservative’ and 2.06% identified as “very conservative.”

The majority of respondents identify as liberal; more female respondents identify as liberal than men.

Grouped by gender, 83.33% of female respondents identified as “somewhat liberal” or “very liberal,” compared to 55.91% of men who identified as “somewhat liberal” or “very liberal.” About 13.4% of female respondents identified as moderate/centrist, compared to 25.12% of men. Only 3.26% of female respondents identified as “somewhat conservative” or “very conservative,” compared to 18.97% of men.

There were similar breaks in political identification across all Duke affiliations—undergraduate and graduate students, faculty, staff, and others—with faculty having a slightly higher share identifying as moderate/centrist and slightly fewer identifying as “ somewhat liberal” or “very liberal.” The majority of respondents from all Duke affiliations identified as “somewhat liberal” or “very liberal.”

Among racial groups with at least fifteen respondents, the distribution of political identification was generally similar, with the majority identifying as “somewhat liberal” or “very liberal.” Black or African American respondents had the largest percentage of respondents identifying as liberal at 81.02%, and Middle Eastern/North African respondents had the smallest percentage of respondents identifying as liberal at 66. 66%.

You can view the breakdown of political identity by party at Tableau.

Presidential choices

More than three in four members of the Duke community plan to vote for Kamala Harris.

The majority of respondents – 78.06% – plan to vote for Democratic presidential and vice presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. About 7.64% of respondents plan to vote for the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and JD Vance. About 11.26% of respondents are not voting in the presidential race, and 3.04% plan to vote for third-party candidates.

Undergraduate and graduate students expressed very similar opinions about their vote for president. About 76.92% of college graduate respondents plan to vote for Harris, and 7.69% plan to vote for Trump; while 75.69% of undergraduate respondents plan to vote for Harris, and 7.85% plan to vote for Trump.

Teachers and staff were even more likely to vote for the Democratic presidential ticket, with 89.66% of teachers reporting they planned to vote for Harris, and 88.89% of staff doing the same. While employee respondents were significantly less likely to not register, they were also less likely to sit out the election, as none indicated they would not vote despite being eligible.

Preference for a presidential candidate largely corresponds to political identification.

Grouped by political identification, none of the respondents who identified as “very conservative” indicated they plan to vote for Harris, while none of those who identified as “very liberal” indicated they plan to vote for Trump to vote. Meanwhile, 14.86% of respondents who identify as “somewhat conservative” plan to vote for Harris, while only 0.24% of respondents who identify as “somewhat liberal” plan to vote for Trump.

Respondents who identified as moderate/centrist were the most likely to not vote despite being eligible, at 7.53%, followed by respondents who identified as “somewhat conservative” and “very conservative,” at 5, respectively .41% and 4.55%.

Preferred presidential candidates

Most liberal respondents favor Harris, while conservative respondents are more divided.

Respondents were asked to identify their favorite presidential candidate – “even if not on the ballot” – from a list of nine options, with the tenth option being “other.” The nine options presented were Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, Chase Oliver and Cornel West.

Respondents who identified themselves as “very liberal” or “somewhat liberal” strongly preferred Harris as the presidential candidate, 81.15% and 84.05% respectively. Harris was also the preferred candidate for a large number of moderate/centrist respondents at 44.62%, followed by Haley at 18.28%.

Conservative respondents were more divided. Trump received support from the majority of “very conservative” respondents, at 54.55%. He was closely followed by Haley, with 22.73%, and DeSantis, with 18.18%. A large number of “somewhat conservative” respondents favored Haley – 32.43% – compared to 28.38% who preferred Trump and 10.81% who preferred DeSantis.

More Harris voters are satisfied with their choice than Trump voters.

Harris was the presidential candidate preferred by 80.78% of respondents who voted for her, while Trump was the presidential candidate by 42.31% of respondents who voted for him.

The top three candidates – excluding Harris – for Harris voters were Haley (4.27%), Stein (3.14%) and Biden (2.14%). The top three preferred candidates – besides Trump – for Trump voters were Haley (24.36%), DeSantis (14.1%) and Kennedy (7.69%).

Respondents who answered “other” were given the option to name an alternative candidate of their choice.

The majority of respondents (11) who chose ‘other’ indicated that they had no preferred alternative candidate. Ten respondents named Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, eight named Rep. Bernie Sanders, six were unsure what their preferred alternative candidate would be, six named Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, three named Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and two mentioned former First Lady Michelle Obama.

Governmental choices

More than 9 in 10 members of the Duke community plan to vote for Stein for governor of NC.

An overwhelming majority of respondents – 91.14% – plan to vote for the Democratic candidate for NC Governor, Attorney General Josh Stein. About 5.23% of respondents plan to vote for the Republican candidate, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, and 3.62% plan to vote for a third-party candidate.

None of the respondents who identified themselves as “very” or “somewhat” liberal indicated they planned to vote for Robinson. While a majority of “somewhat conservative” respondents supported Trump, they were more divided on the governor’s race, with 44.68% backing Robinson and 34.04% backing Stein. The majority of “very conservative” respondents – 64.71% – indicated they planned to vote for Robinson, compared to just 5.88% who planned to vote for Stein and 29.41% who planned to vote for another candidate.

You can view additional breakdowns of governor preferences at race and gender, race and political beliefs, Duke Affiliation, political conviction And religion on Tableau.

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