US Election Odds: Who Can Win the Presidency?

This presidential elections is on track to become historic as a former US president Donald Trump is running against vice president Kamala Harris for the White House.

If Harris wins, she will be the first woman and woman of color to become US president.

If Trump wins, he will be the first to be impeached and convicted of a crime twice.

For American citizens, these elections are also the first time this century bet about the outcome is legal and widespread within the US.

A court ruling earlier this year paved the way for betting on US elections.

Since then, Americans have spent millions of dollars gambling about the outcome of the race.

We take a look at who is leading the way when it comes to betting.

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS, UNITED STATES - NOVEMBER 3: Citizens cast their votes during early voting for the general presidential election at the polling place in Chicago, Illinois on November 3, 2024, ahead of the November 5 general election. (Photo by Jacek Boczarski/Anadolu via Getty Images) — A court ruling earlier this year has made it possible for American voters to gamble on the election outcome. (Photo: Jacek Boczarski/Anadolu/Getty)

Who has the best chance of winning the US elections?

According to gambling companies, the odds currently appear to be in Donald Trump’s favor.

Oddschecker, a website that compares and analyzes the odds of different sports, events and betting markets, currently has former US President Donald Trump as the most likely winner of the US presidential election with odds of 8/11.

While US Vice President Kamala Harris has a 7/5 chance of becoming the next president.

Chase Oliver of the Libertarian party has odds of 1000/1.

Betting on which political party will win is at odds of 8/11 for the Republican Party, 7/5 for the Democratic Party and 500/1 for an independent party.

Millions of dollars have already been spent betting on the presidential election in the US (Photo: Glow Images/Getty)

Is election betting allowed in the US?

Betting on election results is now legal in the US, after years of being blocked by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

A court ruling in October made gambling on the presidential election possible.

A US federal appeals court in Washington DC upheld a lower court’s decision that allowed New York derivatives trading platform KalshiEX LLC to include contracts that allowed Americans to bet on election results.

It comes after Kalshi asked the CFTC for permission in June 2023 to list contracts that would allow Americans to bet on whether a certain party would control the House of Representatives and the Senate within a certain period.

The CFTC banned Kalshi from contracting for political events due to concerns about illegal gambling and other activities that it said were not in the public interest.

But Kalshi sued, claiming the CFTC had overstepped his authority.

In September of this year, a Washington DC District Court judge sided with Kalshi, ruling that his contracts did not involve illegal activities or gambling, but instead included elections.

It paved the way for Americans to bet on the election.

Kalshi said betting on the general election reached $30 million within the first three weeks and had risen to $139 million by November 1.