The worry meter is low for Tropical Depression 18. Here's what you need to know

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) – Tropical Depression 18 was designated Monday morning in the southern Caribbean.

The National Hurricane Center predicts this system will become Tropical Storm Rafael on Monday and possibly a Category 1 hurricane near the western tip of Cuba on Wednesday.

As always, the WCTV First Alert Weather Team is monitoring closely, but the worry meter is low on this system.

The models are in pretty good agreement that this tropical system will move north/northwest and reach the Gulf of Mexico by mid-week.

In the Gulf, conditions are not very favorable for tropical systems due to wind shear, dry air and cooler water temperatures. As a result, we expect some weakening on Thursday and Friday.

Right now the steering pattern appears to be bringing this system into the central Gulf of Mexico and southern our region, but we expect an increase in tropical moisture Wednesday and Thursday.

After a recent dry spell, some much-needed rain looks set to fall across the Big Bend and South Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday. Some heavier rain bags are possible.

As of around noon Monday, the system has winds of 35 miles per hour and is located 195 miles south of Jamaica.

There is a tropical storm warning for Jamaica, a hurricane warning for the Cayman Islands and a hurricane warning for parts of Cuba.

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