Best and worst case scenarios for BYU in the First College Football Playoff rankings

Through eight games, BYU is 8-0 and 5-0 in Big 12 play. The Cougars have everything to play for as the calendar turns to November. Tuesday is a big day for BYU – the College Football Playoff committee will unveil the first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2024 season. When the rankings are released, BYU will be ranked in the CFP rankings for the first time since 2021. Today we analyze the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the College Football Playoff rankings.

Let’s address the elephant in the room – let’s call it the “Gary Barta effect.” Most BYU fans have bad memories of the College Football Playoff committee – and for good reason. It was in 2020 when BYU was 9-0 and No. 8 in the AP poll. The first CFP rankings came out and the Cougars dropped all the way to zero. 14. The committee disliked BYU’s strong schedule that season and BYU was punished in the rankings as a result. Gary Barta, the committee’s leader that season, was asked about BYU’s drop in the rankings. Barta said the committee “respected” BYU but cited their tight schedule. No matter what BYU did that season, the committee wouldn’t rank them in the top 12. The “Gary Barta effect” is the idea that no matter what BYU does right, the committee won’t respect BYU’s resume.

Because of 2020, most BYU fans forget that the committee was more favorable toward BYU in 2021 than the AP poll. The Cougars were ranked No. 1. 17 in the AP Poll at the time and the committee ranked the Cougars two spots ahead of No. 1. 15. Why was the committee more favorable toward BYU that season? Because BYU had some quality wins over P5 teams.

This year, BYU’s resume is much better than ever before for the first CFP rankings. The ‘Gary Barta effect’ is still possible, but it’s not a foregone conclusion like it was in 2020.

The worst-case scenario for BYU isn’t nearly as bad as it was before last Saturday’s games. On Saturday, Texas A&M, Clemson, Iowa State and Pitt lost. Those four teams threatened BYU in the rankings. Since they all lost, BYU’s bottom is much higher than it was a week ago.

In Sunday’s AP poll, BYU was ranked No. 1. 9 and was a consensus top-10 team. With only five undefeated teams left, BYU can only be so low. That’s good news for BYU.

Historically, the committee has always favored P4/P5 teams. This is the first time BYU has had the benefit of participating in a P4 conference. However, it’s unclear how this year’s committee will view the Big 12 compared to the Big Ten and the SEC. How will the committee view undefeated BYU compared to, say, one-loss Tennessee? That remains to be seen.

But who are the candidates to skip BYU according to the AP poll? Just behind BYU in the AP poll are Notre Dame (10), Alabama (11), Boise State (12), SMU (13), LSU (14), Texas A&M (15), Ole Miss (16) and Iowa State (17).

Notre Dame is certainly a candidate. Though the Fighting Irish suffered one of the nation’s worst losses at home against NIU. Behind the Fighting Irish you will find the SEC teams with two losses. It’s safe to expect the committee to be biased against the SEC, but in this author’s opinion, it’s highly unlikely the committee would favor a two-loss SEC team over an undefeated Big 12 team at this point. team. If they do so, they run the risk of devaluing the results of the regular competition.

Boise State won’t skip BYU. The committee has never treated G5 teams kindly. And SMU? BYU has a head-to-head win over SMU.

At worst, we think BYU will still be a top 10 team, or very close to it. Maybe Notre Dame will top the Cougars and maybe Alabama’s win over Georgia will catapult the Crimson Tide, but we’d imagine BYU will be around the top 10 even in a worst-case scenario.

Worst-case scenario: #11

According to this author, there is more upside than downside for BYU compared to the AP poll. Why? Because BYU’s side-by-side resume is performing very well compared to the teams right ahead of them in the AP poll.

Let’s start with Indiana. The Hoosiers have dominated and the committee could reward them for that, but Indiana’s resume stinks. Indiana’s strong schedule ranks 103rd and they have not played any team receiving votes in the AP poll. It wouldn’t be too shocking if BYU leapfrogged Indiana.

What about the one-loss teams Texas and Penn State? Their only losses have been to the elite teams, but they lack signature wins. Texas’ best win is Vanderbilt, and Penn State doesn’t have a top-25 win. Perhaps the best win for the Nittany Lions is against Illinois? Or maybe Wisconsin?

And Tennessee? The Vols had a good win against Alabama, but a win over Alabama in 2024 doesn’t mean what it used to mean. Tennessee lost to a very mediocre Arkansas team earlier this season. Perhaps the committee will hold them accountable for that loss.

If this committee can break away from the SEC and Big Ten biases that plague the AP poll (that’s probably too much to ask), there’s a world in which BYU could have an edge over one or two of those teams with one loss.

Last year the committee greatly appreciated the undefeated P5 teams. There were five undefeated P5 teams that reached the first rankings last season, and they were the top five teams in the first CFP rankings. At least to some extent, the committee has shown in the past that it values ​​the ‘zero loss’ column.

Miami has been comfortably ahead of BYU all season. Is that justified? The Hurricanes don’t have a classification win and they’ve had too many close calls to count. BYU has two wins that are better than all of Miami’s victories. It may seem far-fetched based on the AP poll, but it’s not impossible as the committee’s rankings should eliminate early-season bias.

In the very best case scenario, we think BYU could be knocking on the door of the top five.

Best-case scenario: #6