Here's how third-party candidates could shape the Trump-Harris race

Topline

Third-party candidates are on the ballot in crucial swing states, and with the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remaining virtually tied, a few votes for smaller candidates could determine the difference.

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – AUGUST 23: Former Republican presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and … (+) Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump, shakes hands during a campaign rally at the Desert Diamond Arena on August 23, 2024 in Glendale, Arizona. Kennedy announced today that he is suspending his presidential campaign and supporting former President Trump. (Photo by Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)

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Key facts

Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (who has suspended his campaign), the Green Party’s Jill Stein, the Libertarian Party’s Chase Oliver and independent Cornel West have run in at least some of the seven swing states ready to decide the elections to retain a place on the electoral list. election.

Oliver is on the ballot in every swing state, Stein and West are on the ballot in most states, and Kennedy is only on the ballot in Michigan and Wisconsin, even though he has tried to remove his name after endorsing Trump.

Third-party candidates will likely get a minuscule share of the vote, but in an election as close as this one, they could matter: Minor candidates got 3% to 4% of the vote in the election. Economist/YouGov And Times/Siena polls over the past week have a larger vote share than the one percentage point that separates Trump and Harris, while a CNN/SSRS poll of Michigan found that up to 6% of voters supported minor candidates as Harris held a five-point lead.

Democrats are especially concerned about third-party candidates: Stein and West are, too run to the left of Harris and is often seen as more likely to steal voters from her than from Trump; the final Times/Siena A national poll in October shows Trump leading 47% to Harris’ 46%, including third parties, but a tie (48%-48%) when people are forced to say which way they go.

The role of RFK Jr. on the remaining battlefields is unclear: before quitting, he was seen as a reliability for both campaigns, but polls show this may be the case to distract more from Trump with his now dragging candidacy – for example, a Fox News poll released on October 30 showed Harris leading Trump 48%-46% in Michigan when voters are allowed to select Kennedy as an option (Kennedy has 3%), but that number shifts to a tie of 49%-49% when voters cannot select Kennedy.

Which Swing States have third party candidates, and how are these candidates rated?

Arizona: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. Stein has 2% of the votes and Oliver 1% a Times/Siena poll released on November 3. In the same poll, Trump has a four-point lead.
Michigan: Stein, Oliver, West and Kennedy are on the ballot. Kennedy has less than half a percentage point, Stein has 2%, West has less than 1% and Oliver has 1% in the Times/Siena poll. In the same poll, Harris is tied with Trump (45% to 45%).
Wisconsin: Stein, Oliver, West and Kennedy are on the ballot. Kennedy has less than half a percentage point, Stein has 1%, West has less than half a percentage point and Oliver has less than 1% in the Times/Siena poll. In the same poll, Harris led Trump by three points.
Georgia: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. Stein has less than 1% and Oliver 2%, according to the Times/Siena poll. In the same poll, Harris is tied with Trump (46% vs. 46%).
Nevada: Oliver is on the ballot; According to the newspaper, he has 2% of the votes Times/Siena poll. In the same poll, Harris is three points ahead of Trump.
North Carolina: Stein, Oliver and West are on the ballot. Stein has less than 1% of the vote, West has less than half a percentage point and Oliver has less than 1% of the vote, according to the Times/Siena poll. In the same poll, Harris is three points ahead of Trump.
Pennsylvania: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. According to him, Stein has about 1% of the votes, while Oliver has less than 1% of the votes the Times/Siena poll. In the same poll, Harris and Trump are tied, 47%-47%.

Crucial quote

“This year, third parties appear to be gaining very little traction and are likely to play a very limited role, but (in) an extremely close election, where a few thousand votes in three or four states could determine the outcome, a third party that could even decline of tenths of 1% could make a difference,” Bruce Schulman, a historian and professor at Boston University, told Forbes via email.

Important background

Third-party candidates have virtually no chance of winning the election, given the funding and popularity required to make a dent in the electoral and popular vote. Historically, no third-party candidate has won a presidential race — and they often do worse than they do in the polls. Pew Research Center notes. Yet many of these candidates have put in money, effort and even money lawsuits be recorded on (or DELETED of) the vote. The candidates are often accused of serving as spoilers, a notion that third-party candidates typically deny, arguing that they offer voters an ideological option not offered to them by any of the major parties. Alleged spoilers in recent years include 2016 candidates Stein and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who got 1% and 3% of the vote respectively. Some claim Stein damaged Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign: the Green Party candidate won tens of thousands of votes in Wisconsin, a larger number than the margin by which Trump became president. Regular candidate Ralph Nader is too claimed to be a spoiler because of his 2000 campaign, where he gained a few percentage points in Florida, which George W. Bush narrowly won over Al Gore. The late billionaire Ross Perot famously ran for president in 1992 against Democrat Bill Clinton and Republican President George HW Bush. He landed about 18.9% of the vote, the closest to a third party victory in American history, and widely believed to hurt Bush.

What is a protest vote?

In such a hotly contested race, some voters see voting for a third party as a means to protest the election or show dissatisfaction with two main candidates.

What to pay attention to

Stein has emerged as a favored candidate for some Muslim and Arab-American voters dissatisfied with President Joe Biden’s support for Israel in the invasion of Gaza. Her support is particularly strong in Michigan (which has a large Arab-American population), Arizona and Wisconsin. Reuters reports thisciting a poll by an advocacy group, the Council on American-Islamic Relations. In Michigan, 40% of Muslim voters said they would vote for Stein, compared to 18% for Trump and 12% for Harris, according to CAIR.