The worry meter is low for Tropical Storm Rafael. Here's what you need to know

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) – Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the southern Caribbean Monday afternoon.

The National Hurricane Center predicts this system will strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane near the western tip of Cuba on Wednesday.

As always, the WCTV First Alert Weather Team is monitoring closely, but the worry meter is low on this system.

The models are in pretty good agreement that this tropical system will move north/northwest and reach the Gulf of Mexico by mid-week.

In the Gulf, conditions are not very favorable for tropical systems due to wind shear, dry air and cooler water temperatures. As a result, we expect some weakening on Thursday and Friday.

Right now the steering pattern appears to be bringing this system into the central Gulf of Mexico and southern our region, but we expect an increase in tropical moisture Wednesday and Thursday.

After a recent dry spell, some much-needed rain looks set to fall across the Big Bend and South Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday. Some heavier rain bags are possible.

As of 4:00 PM on Monday, Rafael has winds of 70 km per hour and a minimum pressure of 997 mb.

There is a tropical storm warning for Jamaica, a hurricane warning for the Cayman Islands and a hurricane warning for parts of Cuba.

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