Shock Poll Places Harris in Ruby Red Iowa, But Latest Battleground State Surveys Point to a Toss-Up Election

Republicans are trying to downplay a shocking Saturday poll result in Iowa that shows Vice President Harris leading President Trump in the state, which led Republicans at several points in the last two presidential elections. This comes as other polls show Ms Harris opening up a narrow lead in critical battleground states just 48 hours before election day.

The Iowa survey by the Des Moines Register and pollster J. Ann Selzer showed Ms. Harris leading Trump by three points in the state, 47 percent to 44 percent. It is a notable result for Democrats, considering that President Biden lost to Ms. Selzer by 18 points in June in the same poll of Ms. Selzer, and Mr. Trump led Ms. Harris by four points in September.

Ms. Selzer is considered one of the nation’s top pollsters, with a track record to prove it. In the last three presidential elections, her election research has accurately predicted the outcome in Iowa by a two-point margin. In the state’s 2022, 2020 and 2014 Senate races, her poll came within one point of accurately predicting the winners of each of those contests.

“No president has done more for FARMERS and the great state of Iowa than Donald J. Trump. In fact, it’s not even close! All the polls, except one heavily skewed to the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it completely wrong last time, have me WAY positive,” Trump said on Truth Social.

Shortly after the poll was released, Trump’s own polling team, led by Tony Fabrizio, released a memo detailing the alleged problems with the Selzer poll. Calling it an “outlier” poll compared to other surveys — such as an Emerson College poll released Saturday that showed Trump up 10 points in Iowa — Mr. Fabrizio writes that Ms. Selzer saw a sharp increase in Republican registration over the past four years has underestimated the strong early turnout of Republican voters.

Iowa — once considered a crucial swing state — is one of those Midwestern states that has moved sharply to the right in the Trump era. The state hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, hasn’t elected a Democrat as governor since 2006, and all four of the state’s congressional seats are currently held by the Republican Party.

Iowa conservatives who have praised Ms. Selzer in the past quickly turned on her Saturday after the favorable result for Ms. Harris was released. “Never quote Des Moines Register polls to me again. @jaselzer just completely flushed the toilet, whatever was left of her credibility. Intentional malfeasance,” a popular conservative Iowa radio host, Steve Deace, said of story’. poll.”

In addition to Ms. Selzer’s poll that delighted Democrats on Saturday, the New York Times and Siena College released their latest overview of the 2024 race on Sunday, showing Ms. Harris with a slight lead in critical battleground states that would lead to a election battle. University victory.

According to the Times-Siena poll, Ms. Harris leads Trump in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia, although all states are within the margin of error. She is ahead by three points in Nevada, two points in both North Carolina and Wisconsin, and one point in Georgia. Pennsylvania and Michigan are tied, while Trump has a four-point lead in Arizona.

If Tuesday’s poll proves accurate, Ms. Harris would list the Electoral College with only Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia in her column, along with other states considered solid in her column.