When will we know who won the 2024 US elections? How long does it take to count the votes?

It is difficult to predict when we will know the winner of the 2024 US presidential electionas voters across America head to the polls with a choice between Republican former President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. If the result is clear, it might come later tonight; If the election turns out to be a close race, as expected, there could be significant delays.

US elections 2024: live

How long could it take for a US election result to be released?

In recent years there has been a mix of quick results and lengthy results processes. For example, in 2012, Democratic incumbent Barack Obama defeated Republican challenger Mitt Romney so comprehensively (337 electoral votes to Romney’s 206) that the media declared Obama the winner before midnight on Election Day. Four years later, when Republican Donald Trump claimed a surprise victory over Hillary Clinton — with a 304-vote lead to 227 — the Democratic candidate had called for Trump to concede at 3 a.m. ET the morning after the election.

What could cause delays in the election results?

However, in 2020 it took a little longer. It was not until November 7, four days after the election, that the media declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner in Pennsylvania and, by extension, the victor in his presidential battle with Trump, then the incumbent commander in chief. .

One swing state that will again become an important battleground this year was Pennsylvania The large number of mail-in ballots has delayed reaching a 2020 result election officials had to process this. According to CBSan unprecedented 375,000 Pennsylvanians chose not to vote in person, in an election that took place amid the global Covid-19 pandemic.

With the pandemic over, fewer mail-in ballots were expected in the U.S. this year. However, cDoubts about possible delays in processing such votes have persistedas evidenced by recent efforts to pass state legislation allowing election clerks to begin processing absentee ballots before Election Day itself. Such legislation has been introduced, without success, in places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, another major toss-up state.

In states where there are tight races, Recounts can also mean we have to be patient while awaiting the announcement of the new occupant of the Oval Office. This was reported by the National Conference of State Legislators24 states and the District of Columbia all require automatic recounts if there is a very narrow margin of victory. The threshold is normally 0.5% or lower, but sometimes 1% or less.

In this year’s battle between Trump and Harris, there are a number of states in which the two presidential candidates are likely to be neck-and-neck. From Monday, indeed, the data analysis specialist RealClearPolling estimated a difference of less than one percentage point in no fewer than five swing states.

And in such a tight race for the White House, it is expected that there will be legal challenges after Election Day – especially from Republicans – with the chance of holding up the outcome. After all, there has already been a wealth of lawsuits prior to the elections: referring to the tracking website Democracy Docket, Reuters notes that there will have been just under 200 such lawsuits in 2024.

Reuters adds that Trump and his allies filed more than 60 lawsuits four years ago challenging the outcome of the election. Although these cases were unsuccessful, There is precedent for the outcome of a close election being delayed for weeks amid litigation. In 2000, George W. Bush was not declared the winner until the US Supreme Court ruled on December 12 – more than a month after Election Day – to end a recount in Florida. The Supreme Court’s ruling confirmed Bush as the winner of the state, with just 537 votes more than his Democratic opponent, Al Gore, and put the Republican over the threshold of the number of electoral votes needed to become president.

“Huge risk of spreading mis- and disinformation”

In 2020, the Trump team based his many legal challenges on unsubstantiated claims of election fraud – and if some states again need more time to count every vote this year, it seems inevitable that the ex-president and his supporters will once again use such delays as evidence of corruption.

“There could be a situation where we only have a few sticking points,” Rachel Orey, senior associate director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Elections Project, told an interview with NBC News in February. “That creates a huge risk for the spread of mis- and disinformation when you have a few states in the spotlight There are candidates who say, we have results from all these other states. Why does it take so long? Something must be wrong (…).

“Ultimately, the responsibility lies with the candidates. But that’s easier said than done.”