Why are Indian policymakers waiting with bated breath for the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election? News24 –

Why are Indian policy makers and State Department mandarins watching the 2024 US presidential election with eagle eyes and bated breath? The answer may seem simple: the election results could affect India-US relations. Real?

It is not as easy to answer this question as it seems. US foreign policy is generally seen as something that does not suddenly change with the change of the person sitting in the Oval Office in the White House. It’s a bipartisan issue on most issues.

India’s two-pronged approach

Both Democratic and Republican candidates agree that India is in many ways useful and indispensable to safeguarding US interests in Asia and expanding and strengthening its geopolitical significance in the world.

Also read: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, who will be the better US President for India?

As Washington seeks to stem Chinese expansionism in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific region, it has plans ready to use New Delhi to checkmate Beijing.

India checkmates China?

With the Quadrilateral Dialogue or the Quad gaining traction and being labeled as Asia’s NATO, India no longer has any parallel in holding back the dragon in its own game of Chinese checkers.

At a time when Beijing has rejected the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and rejected Japanese naval advances, India is the one country that will find it difficult to defeat China.

Significance of India in Chinese checkers

Although India has no territorial claim anywhere in the South China Sea and a minor shipping route through the area, New Delhi has recently begun to assert itself. Beijing has asked New Delhi several times to avoid the controversy, but to no avail.

Also read: Explained: How the candidate with the most votes can still lose the US presidential election. Everything about the electoral college system

Political analysts believe that India wants to exploit the South China Sea controversy and stand alongside countries like Japan and the Philippines in a bid to increase pressure on China so that the country can make concessions for its own geopolitical advantage.

Border dispute between India and China: decisive factor

For a country with a disputed 4,057 km border and an unresolved LAC passing through the sensitive states of Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, it is an obvious opportunity to exploit the situation. So it is not surprising that New Delhi has shown increasing interest in the South China Sea in the name of free navigation rights.

Also read: Why has the US now imposed sanctions on Indian companies after overlooking Russian oil imports?

The Indo-Pacific region is another area where New Delhi can help the US checkmate China. The US has made its footprint from Guam to Diego Garcia and Africa or the Cape of Good Hope to remote small islands in the ocean. China is increasing its presence and expanding its significance through its Belt and Road Initiative.

How will India help the US in the Indo-Pacific?

It will take some time for Beijing to catch up with the US, but the dragon has awakened and is making serious progress in the region. India can join hands with Australia and New Zealand and help the US without joining the AUKUS or the Australia-UK-US bloc.

Kamala Harris or Donald Trump whoever wins, the new US president will have to deepen the relationship with India.

Will India benefit from the China-US trade war?

Political analysts believe that Donald Trump could take a more aggressive approach to Beijing, both geopolitically and economically. As a champion of the slogans “America First” and “Make America Great Again,” the Republican president will most likely translate these slogans into reality.

A trade war between the US and China, which will see new tariffs imposed on Chinese imports, will most likely begin soon, perhaps weeks after Donald Trump takes the oath of office on January 20, 2025. tough approach to India, as he made clear many times during his election campaign.

While Indian exports to the US may come under pressure due to higher tariffs and a hostile trade environment, this could help Indian trade in a new and different way. New Delhi can use the anti-China trade ecosystem in the US to increase its own trade with the country with certain adjustments. While India may not be able to replace the dragon, India can certainly reduce the gap that the country may suffer due to the higher rates in that country.

The Indian Foreign Ministry mandarins are also keeping a close eye on the US presidential elections because if elected, Donald Trump will most likely create hurdles for the H1B visa, which is used by Indian citizens, especially in the IT sector . If the Republican leader becomes US President, Indians may be at the receiving end with fewer visas. It could affect both remittances and earnings of workers in the IT and ITES sectors.

Will remittances from the US decrease?

Individuals from the Indian diaspora living in the US sent $125 billion to their country of origin in 2023-2024. The remittances received by India have increased from 87 billion percent in 2020-21 to $89 billion in 21-22 and $110 billion in 2022-23. That could happen if Donald Trump is elected and implements his policy of stemming the influx of immigrants, Indian policymakers suspect.

Indian mandarins wait with fingers crossed, but with bated breath. Let the American voters decide.