Farmers should consider potash purchases with a possible production cut in Belarus

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A fertilizer market expert is not surprised by recent reports that Belarusian potash production and exports may be reduced.

Josh Linville of StoneX says Brownfield potash saw a huge price correction coming out of the 2021-2022 peak, with prices falling to about a third of their peak, and then staying there. “If prices get low, they can’t go on forever. Ultimately, the manufacturers are pushing back, and they are doing so in a way where they want to reduce production and want other manufacturers to do the same. Reduce supply and demand does not change, prices rise or at least prevent a fall.”

Linville says if Belarus cuts production, others may follow. “I don’t think Belarus on its own is big enough to influence the market in a very big way, but now when you suddenly see Russian producers doing the same thing, and especially when you start to see Canada deciding that they have to do that, do the same, now we have a big, big storyline.

Linville says farmers need to take action if they want potash for the 2025 growing season. “We’re getting quite a large harvest anyway, which means a lot of nutrients are being lost. I think the days of dragging our feet hoping something will change, I think that’s behind us. I think this is probably the kick in the pants that we need to just go ahead and get on with it.

Linville says Belarus and Russia account for about a third of global potash production. Cuts would make the nutrient a lot more expensive, so farmers shouldn’t wait if they need it.

AUDIO: Josh Linville discusses possible cuts in potash production and why he says it’s time to do so if necessary.