Hurricane Rafael becomes a Category 2 storm as it heads toward Cuba

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico — Hurricane Rafael, a Category 2 with sustained winds of 100 mph, is intensifying rapidly in the Caribbean as it makes landfall in Cuba on Wednesday.

After moving through the Caribbean, the powerful hurricane is expected to encounter some serious resistance in the Gulf of Mexico and could make landfall as a much weaker storm this weekend, from the US Gulf Coast to northeastern Mexico.

By Wednesday morning, Rafael was 160 miles from Cuba.

What, if any, threat Rafael poses to the Gulf Coast is still unclear, but it is emerging, and a more confident forecast will be possible once the storm enters the Gulf on Thursday.

Rafael’s threat against Cuba is clear.

It will be a strong Category 2 hurricane when it makes landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday afternoon, according to the National Hurricane Center. If the hurricane strengthens slightly more than currently forecast, it could become a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane upon landfall.

Nine storms, including Rafael, have rapidly intensified in the Atlantic Basin this year, fueled by extremely warm waters. Rapid intensification is becoming more common as the atmosphere and oceans warm due to fossil fuel pollution.

According to NOAA data, Rafael is the strongest hurricane to hit the northwestern Caribbean in November since 2009. According to hurricane expert Michael Lowry, it is expected to be only the fifth hurricane to hit the Gulf of Mexico in November.

Heavy rains from the hurricane spread across Cuba on Wednesday morning and will flood the country on Thursday. Double-digit rain totals are possible. Tropical storm-force winds were near the country’s southern coast early Wednesday. These winds and stronger hurricane force winds will spread across Cuba in the coming hours.

Raphael’s powerful winds also created dangerous seas and could produce a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) off Cuba’s southern coast before landfall.

Rafael’s future trajectory is uncertain
Rafael’s potential route through the Gulf of Mexico later this week and over the weekend is slowly coming into focus, but is far from certain.

Rafael could still become the sixth named storm to hit the US this season, but the risk areas are gradually narrowing.

Earlier this week, forecast models outlined very different possible paths for Rafael, but these models are starting to get closer to a solution. Instead of a steady northwestward track across the Gulf and landfall along the northern Gulf Coast, two major forecast models more consistently show a significant westward shift.

The current forecast from the hurricane center indicates that Rafael could make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to northeastern Mexico, west of the original predictions that included Alabama and the Florida Panhandle as a possibility.

“If future model runs continue to show this trend…an additional leftward adjustment of the NHC track may be necessary,” the center said Wednesday.

Upper level storm disruptive winds are likely to severely deteriorate Rafael as the storm gets closer to the U.S. coastline, regardless of where that is. Current forecasts call for Rafael to return to tropical storm status this weekend.

Rafael’s U.S. impact could be limited, but the same robust tropical moisture that fueled the storm Wednesday will fuel heavy rainfall across the Southeast.

There is a widespread area of ​​a level 2 of 4 flood risk for parts of South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama on Wednesday, according to the Weather Prediction Center. Smaller parts of Georgia and South Carolina are at risk of Level 3 or 4 flooding.

Bursts of rain can cause dangerous flash floods, but some areas may flood slowly given the dryness of much of the ground after a record-breaking October.