US elections: six reasons why Kamala Harris was always on course to lose to Donald Trump

By means of Leigh Sales*, ABC

Analysis – What the Democrats have done is truly extraordinary convincingly lost a presidential election against one of the most discredited figures in modern American political history – a convicted felon, no less.

And yet the challenges facing the Democratic Party and the campaign’s clear mistakes and missteps have been evident from the day Kamala Harris was nominated.

There is little that is surprising about Donald Trump’s victory, other than the obvious shock that a candidate so vulgar and mean-spirited last week pretended to attack a microphonejust the latest pathetic example in a long line is not unelectable.

Here are six obvious reasons why Democrats were on track to lose:

Economic pain

There is a huge gap between how the American economy is doing and how the public thinks it is doing.

Under the Biden administration, the economy has improved significantly across key indicators of unemployment, inflation and growth. But Americans feel like they’re doing it harder than ever before, something that’s been called “the vibecession.”

It’s not just perception either. Goods people buy every week – groceries and petrol – are much more expensive than before Covid.

You have to look further back than Biden’s four years to see the full economic picture. In recent decades, the gap between America’s haves and have-nots has widened. The middle class has shrunk. Formerly prosperous cities have struggled as jobs have moved abroad.

Politically, incumbent governments almost always pay the price when voters feel economic pain, and that would have been the case if Joe Biden or Kamala Harris were the nominee.

Harris was left with an impossible task: trying to share credit for the Biden administration’s economic achievements without minimizing the real financial problems felt by many Americans.

The priorities of the Democratic base

While mainstream voters worry about how to make ends meet and wonder why life is harder for their children than for their parents, the Democratic Party’s loudest wing has become preoccupied with what some call culture war issues, including gender affirming healthcare. , #defundthepolice and Gaza.

For Americans who reject these progressive goals and believe in traditional Christian values, Trump’s Make America Great Again message resonates, even if it is a promise based largely on fantasy.

For example, his promise to impose tariffs on foreign goods will not return manufacturing jobs to states like Ohio, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. He’s also an unlikely pin-up for conservative Christians.

Nevertheless, when Democrats chose to nominate a liberal candidate from the progressive heart of San Francisco, some swing voters, and Republicans who hate Trump, were likely suspicious that she would be a Trojan horse for implementing the “wake up” kind. agenda that they hate and fear.

Harris can say all she wants about being a gun owner who won’t take away anyone’s guns, but skeptics would never trust her.

The shift from Biden to Harris

Kamala Harris was the coincidental Democratic candidate. She was never meant to be nominated; she inherited the role at the eleventh hour thanks to Joe Biden’s muddled performance in the first presidential debate.

Despite being vice president, she was not a well-known figure to the American public, especially compared to Trump.

It was an almost impossible task for her to gain the trust of the American public in the limited time she had.

Historical and contemporary sexism and racism

Of the 46 residents of the White House, only one is black: Barack Obama. There have been no women. A victory for a black woman was always against all odds.

Wrong assessments of the Democratic campaign

We know the mood among the American electorate is sour.

Poll after poll shows that Americans think their country is going in the wrong direction. In many places the mood is bitter, frustrated and angry: exactly the atmosphere that Donald Trump reflects on them. The Harris message of optimism and hope was not appropriate for the times. It was not the time for a repeat of the 2008 Yes We Can campaign.

Democrats also had an ear when it came to the gap between rich and poor and how politically powerful it is. Why was Harris constantly campaigning with squillionaire celebrities?

At a meeting last month, much was made of the value of Beyoncé’s endorsement. The music megastar’s glossy, lustrous hair screamed, “I spent more on this color, cut and blow-dry than you make in a month.”

Meanwhile, Trump served fries at a McDonald’s drive-thru.

Every time the Obamas showed up with a lecture about what Americans should do, or who they should vote for, perhaps it was a reminder to working-class, black and Hispanic Americans that they have loyally voted for Democrats for decades.

Perhaps it has made them wonder: have we gotten enough in return or are our votes being taken for granted?

Voter motivation and turnout

We know that American voters are more polarized than ever.

New York Times journalist Ezra Klein has written a book titled Why we are polarizedwho dissects this in detail. He notes that 50 years ago, people voted based on what is called positive partisanship: they voted for the party they liked best, the party whose values ​​most aligned with their own and which offered the policies that would help them survive. most agreed.

That has changed in recent decades.

American voters are now more motivated by negative partisanship: they vote for a party because they really hate the opposing party. You don’t have to particularly trust, understand, agree, or even know what your party has to offer; you just have to find it less offensive than the values ​​and beliefs of the other side.

Turnout numbers and demographic breakdowns in the coming days will provide better insights into this, but it appears that Trump’s voters were more motivated than Harris’ voters.

This is not surprising, because there has never been a more effective or extremely negative campaigner in American history than Trump. He managed to mobilize his base in 2021 to attack the seat of American democracy, the US Capitol. Of course, he can motivate them to check a box by stoking their hatred of the Democrats.

But consider Taylor Swift’s endorsement, which was intended to bring about a major change for Kamala Harris, by forcing young women to vote en masse.

Taylor Swift encouraged positive partisanship: She said vote for this person because she is the person I support and our best choice. That’s not what excites most American voters these days.

There are other factors at play as well, most notably the double standards applied against Trump. Trump can say or do almost anything without punishment, behavior that no other candidate in history has gotten away with. There is also the spread of misinformation and its amplification through social media.

Could Trump ever be defeated? It’s hard to know. But it’s very clear that Americans are buying what he’s selling more than ever.

Since the United States still has the world’s largest military, the world’s largest economy, and the world’s most influential culture, the rest of us around the world are also stuck on a second spin on the Trump roller coaster.

*Leigh Sales is a long-serving ABC journalist who anchored Australian Story, 7.30am. and Lateline. She previously served as the network’s national security correspondent and Washington correspondent.

This story was originally published by ABC News.