Minnesota vs. Rutgers prediction: odds, expert picks, QB matchup, betting trends and stats

Minnesota (6-3) started the season on a negative note, losing a 19-17 heartbreaker to UNC, where they had an 86% postgame win expectancy before dumping their first two Big Ten games against Iowa and @Michigan . However, since losing a 27-24 coin toss to the Wolverines, Minnesota has reeled off four straight B10 conference wins, including a “SoCal Sweep” of USC and UCLA in back-to-back weeks. While the Gophers effectively set up drives with a 46.5% success rate, they are also one of the least explosive teams in the Power Four, ranking 131st in yards per successful play and 128th in marginal explosiveness. Defensively, they are a top unit that ranks 16th in SP+, induces 3-and-outs 37.5% of the time (15th) and allows 20+ yards plays at a stingy 4.6% (9th in FBS).

There was a strong sense of optimism for a Rutgers (4-4) program that was bowl eligible for the second time since 2014. The Scarlet Knights stormed through their early season schedule with key wins over @Virginia Tech and Washington as RU opened up. with a 4-0 record. Since then, however, Rutgers has lost one-score games to @Nebraska and UCLA and got run out of the building by USC and Wisconsin to even their record at 4-4. Offensively, RB Kyle Monangai leads a solid run game that ranks 17th in YAC and 41st in EPA/play. Monangai is considered questionable to play in the match and his status will need to be monitored. RU allows a brutal 51% success rate (11th worst in FBS) while ranking 124th in EPA/rush. Although they rank a decent 46th in SP+ defense, Rutgers has allowed 119 points in their last three games.

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Game details and how to watch Minnesota @ Rutgers

· Date: Saturday November 9, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Location: SHI Stadium
· City: Piscataway, NJ
· TV/Streaming: NBC

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Game odds for Minnesota @ Rutgers

Wednesday’s latest odds:

• Moneyline: Minnesota (-250), Rutgers (+195)
• Spread: Minnesota -6.5
• Top/Bottom: 46.5 points

This line dropped to Minnesota -4.5 and has skyrocketed to the current range of -6/6.5. The Minny moneyline opened at -225 and is trading in the -230/-250 ballpark. Rutgers’ ML is still quite close to the +185 open, while the game total has not dropped from the original 46.5.

NBC Sportsbook Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Rutgers has been wrecked over the past month, scoring 20 or fewer points in three of their last four games. Minnesota has allowed exactly 17 points in three of their last four games against USC, @UCLA and @Illinois. I’m backing the 16th-ranked Gophers defense and taking the Under based on Rutgers’ team total of 20.5 points.

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BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

Line movement (last week to now)

• Ohio State +450 to +350
• Miami +1800 to +1100
• Indiana +5000 to +3500

Highest ticket%

• State of Ohio 14.2%
• Texas 11.6%
• Georgia 10.9%

Highest Handle%

• State of Ohio 18.5%
• Georgia 16.9%
• Texas 11.5%

Biggest obligations

• State of Ohio
• Tennessee
• Colorado

Quarterback matchup for Minnesota @ Rutgers

• Minnesota: UNH transfer Max Brosmer was a 2023 Walter Payton Award finalist before moving to Minnesota as a replacement for former QB Athan Kaliakmanis. Brosmer noticeably improved the Gophers’ passing attack, completing 67.5% of his passes at a 13-to-4 ratio and a rock-solid PFF grade of 86.5, which is the 9th highest mark nationwide! He leads a Minnesota offense that ranks 19th in passing percentage (47.5%), 7th in adjusted completion percentage (75%) and 12th with a 1.4% interception percentage. HC Fleck’s highly efficient passing attack targets receivers on or behind the line 29% of the time (30th), which helps explain why the Gophers are currently the 132nd-ranked team in passing explosiveness.
• Rutgers: HC Greg Schiano moved on from the ineffective 2023, starting QB Gavin Wimsatt in favor of former Minnesota signal caller Athan Kaliakmanis, who transferred this offseason. The change of scenery has benefited Kaliakmanis, who has improved his yards per attempt from 6.2 to 6.8 and lowered his pressure-to-sack rate from 20.5% to 15.6%. The biggest quantifiable gain from an advanced statistical perspective, however, is that Kaliakmanis has increased his PFF grade from 58.2 to 76.8, which is a fraction of a percentage point away from Alabama QB Jalen Milroe’s 77.2 grade. The change of scenery has benefited both Kaliakmanis and Minnesotans. “The Kaliakmanis Bowl” adds another layer of intrigue to this B10 showdown.

Betting trends and recent stats for Minnesota and Rutgers

• Minnesota is 5-1 ATS when allowing fewer than 5.0 yards per carry, which is the third-best mark among Power Four programs. (BYU #1 | Indiana #2)
• Gophers QB Max Brosmer has a 79% completion rate in close & late situations, which is the second highest mark in the Big Ten. Rutgers’ defense has allowed a 70% completion rate in tight and late situations
• Rutgers has thrown for more than 20 yards on just 7.0% of their 242 pass attempts, 10th lowest among FBS offenses. Minnesota has allowed 20+ yard pass plays on 5.7% of passes defensed, the third-best mark among P4 defenses.
• Rutgers ranks 123rd nationally with a 54% completion percentage, but ranks 11th in the FBS with an average of 7.8 air yards per completion. The Scarlet Knights consciously sacrifice accuracy in favor of attempting long passing plays.

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