Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys to the Game: West Virginia Mountaineers

CINCINNATI— A heated rivalry brings the West Virginia Mountaineers to town this weekend to play Cincinnati football. WVU is likely to be missing its starting quarterback due to injury and enters as four-point betting underdogs for the 22nd meeting between the two schools.

Cincinnati needs just one win this season to earn a bowl bid and ranks 49th nationally in Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric, while WVU ranks 59th.

The Mountaineers last visited Nippert Stadium in 2009 and posted a 42-21 series victory last season. That result should light a fire under Cincinnati before the afternoon kickoff.

“Last year against West Virginia, toward the end of the season, we didn’t play great. We go three-and-out, then they go to score, we go three-and-out, and then they go to score. It just snowballed in the first half, and you look up and you’re up 28 to seven before you can even blink,” Satterfield said. And we’ve done almost nothing right. This week we look at the defensive end as another defense for us. We are not the same.

“Now we can look at it offensively and look at the things we didn’t do well. It definitely left a bad taste in our mouth. I think the guys who played last year understand that feeling. And we have a lot of guys who weren’t here either. What we’re trying to do is learn from the things we didn’t do well against them last year, and then try to correct that as we move forward, it’s a different game. That plan didn’t work this year. so we have to move forward with a different plan. Our guys are in a different frame of mind.”

Let’s break down some keys from the matchup between two teams coming off the bye weeks.

Brendan Sorsby has a chance to cheer up another opponent this week after a pair of games just off target ahead of the bye week. He has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country all season and will destroy this secondary when the accuracy increases.

West Virginia comes into this game with a rough defense, especially through the air. They are arranged 117th in dropback success rate allowed and 122nd in EPA/dropback allowed. No FBS team has a lower PFF team coverage grade than West Virginia (38.6 overall).

Delve deeper into the traditional stats and it’s not hard to see why the Mountaineers made a midseason defensive coordinator change: 132nd in yards per pass allowed (9.3), 115th in passing TDs allowed (17) and yards allowed per play (261). It’s a complete mess on the backend. While Cincinnati has a healthy protection group for Sorsby.

“I think the structure will be the same,” Satterfield said of WVU’s new defense coming out of the bye week. “It’s really hard to go into the middle of a season and change a lot. Every time you make a change like that, over a period of time, you’re trying to get the guys to feel comfortable with whatever you’re trying to do , and that’s really up to them not to make any mistakes. I think what it does is at least it simplifies you a little bit more.

“What might be different is if you look at third downs, third down pressures and red zone, those type things might be a little bit different structurally depending on who’s calling it. I think just the structure, the defense, Just the guys getting them straight, letting them be where they need to be, is the best thing you can do to help your kids. I don’t think that will change much in what they do.”

WVU fares much better against the run, ranking 40th in rushing EPA allowed and 26th in passing percentage. UC shouldn’t give up the run by any means, but a heavier passing diet will play to WVU’s weaknesses and it could be perfectly timed for Sorsby to feel healthier after a week off.

Stronger tackling and accurate play from Mason Fletcher will ensure Cincinnati wins on Saturday. No unit in the country is prepared with better field position to defend than Cincinnati this season, while the WVU drives have had tough prospects to start (121st nationally).

Add to that the absence of Garrett Greene at quarterback this week, and you get a ripe situation for the Bearcats. Nicco Marchiol (89th nationally) led his team to a win over Arizona in his only start this season, but the Wildcats have a much worse defense than Cincinnati on the ground and through the air (84th or worse in EPA and passing percentage allowed).

UC also now has plenty of Marchiol tape to play with.

“As for their quarterbacks, they’re both very good. One is right-handed, one is left-handed, but I don’t think that really matters other than maybe a few of them are playing in a game,” Satterfield said Tuesday. “I think they’re both really good football players, they’ll we definitely do.” We expect to play the quarterback that played last week.

“So obviously we’ve been through this before all season with different quarterbacks having to make plays, but I still feel like on offense they’re going to do what they do. We’ve got to be a great stop and do this We know they have some excellent running backs. Our offensive line is really good, and Neal (Brown) does a great job running the football. Obviously they’ll throw, but I think the biggest thing is stopping the run when you play against the West Virginia football team.

Expect WVU to run the ball a lot with the backup QB (31 Marchiol carries this season) while leaning on Jaheim White (5.8 YPC) and CJ Donaldson (453 yards rushing and six touchdowns).

If Fletcher puts in a solid performance and UC keeps missed tackles within the 10-12 range (92nd nationally in PFF tackling grades, 0-3 record this season when missing more than 15 tackles), then UC should pull out a win against the Mountaineers.

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