Trump's second term could refocus U.S. diplomacy toward authoritarian leaders

BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) — Hungary’s fiery right-wing leader says Donald Trump’s victory will help his own fight against immigration and multiculturalism and restore traditional family values.

In Argentina, a president who once… with a bear hug At a political conference in Maryland, Trump attacks his critics as rats and parasites, rails against what he calls a corrupt elite and calls climate change “a socialist lie.”

Trump’s second term could reorient U.S. diplomacy away from traditional international alliances toward populist, authoritarian politicians, both these leaders and outside observers said.

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán of Hungary

Two days before Tuesday’s elections, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made a bold prediction.

“Donald Trump will be president again, and that means that by the end of the year the peace-minded political forces in the West will be in the majority,” Orbán told state radio.

Orbán has been accused by the European Union of burying Hungary’s democracy by dominating the media and building a network of loyal oligarchs. He has worried foreign leaders by drawing closer to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

What Orbán calls “illiberal democracy” has stigmatized civil society organizations and cracked down on LGBTQ+ rights. She is in favor of retaining power, even if this means going against the interests of Hungary’s traditional allies.

President Vladimir Putin of Russia

Trump has avoided publicly criticizing Putin and has consistently spoken warmly about him.

“There is clearly a kind of authoritarian chemistry,” says Nigel Gould-Davies of the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London.

That chemistry fits with Trump’s admiration for other authoritarian leaders, some of whom were elected by systems that were once democratic, Gould-Davies said, citing Hungary under Orbán as an example.

Trump has claimed he will end Russia’s war in Ukraine “within 24 hours,” a claim welcomed by the Kremlin, which currently has an advantage on the battlefield and about 20% of Ukrainian territory.

Moscow may hope that Trump will sow dysfunction in NATO, given his demands that other members of the alliance meet agreed military spending levels, and his warnings that Russia “could do whatever they want” to those who fail.

Gould-Davies noted before the election that the Kremlin would welcome Trump’s victory because of his apparent desire for the war in Ukraine to end on terms favorable to Russia. Putin and other authoritarian leaders will be encouraged by Trump’s re-election, which will mean that “US foreign policy will place much less emphasis on the importance and value of human rights,” Gould-Davies said.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is one of his country’s beloved and polarizing political leaders. Under Modi, Hindu nationalism – once a fringe ideology in India – has gone mainstream, and no one has done more to advance the cause than the 74-year-old leader.

Some critics believe that Modi’s policies have divided India, especially along religious lines. He was accused of using hate speech against the country’s Muslim minority community, especially in the final stages of this year’s election campaign when he stepped up rhetoric against them.

To his supporters, Modi is a political outsider who has broken the mold of the country’s dynastic politics. His rise has been fueled in part by promises to reform India’s economy, but also by Hindu-centric policies that have found widespread resonance in a country where 80% of the population is Hindu.

His critics say Modi has put pressure on democracy and threatened India’s secular fabric, while his attacks on the media and freedom of expression have increased in more than a decade of rule.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey

Like Trump, Erdogan projects an image of strength that prioritizes national interests and relies on populist messages that present him as a champion of ordinary people against the elites.

The Biden administration has kept Erdogan’s government at arm’s length, but Trump and Erdogan have built a cordial relationship. That’s despite a series of disagreements between their countries, such as when the Trump administration removed Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet program in 2019 over Ankara’s purchase of a Russian missile defense system.

President Javier Milei of Argentina

The president of Argentina has one rash style like Trump, rebukes multilateral institutions such as the United Nations and has a contemptuous approach to diplomacydisapproving of meetings with the leaders of traditional allies such as Brazil And Spain.

For many observers, the most worrying parallel implies Milei’s claims that last year’s presidential elections in Argentina were rigged against him. That, along with his attempts to downplay the atrocities of Argentina’s bloody military dictatorship of 1976-1983 has raised concerns about its impact on democracy.

Milei congratulated Trump on his election victory on Wednesday by posting an image on Instagram of the two men embracing in front of their country’s flags.

“You know you can count on Argentina to do your job,” the caption reads. ‘Make America Great Again.’

Analysts say his cash-strapped government – which desperately needs support from the US, the largest stakeholder in the International Monetary Fund – is betting on a Trump victory. Milei’s government is pinning its hopes on the idea that Trump could pressure the IMF to lend more money to Argentina, its biggest debtor.

The fund is considering whether to lend Argentina more cash, which Milei’s libertarian government needs to fully reenter global markets and exit currency controls. During Trump’s first term, the IMF awarded Argentina – then led by conservative President Mauricio Macri – a controversial $57 billion bailout.

Mariano Machado, chief analyst for the Americas at Verisk Maplecroft, a global risk intelligence firm, said that while US institutions and the separation of powers are designed to prevent autocratic rule, “Argentina is now returning to a phase where the parameters of its institutions are being put pressure.”

Prime Minister Robert Fico of Slovakia

Although he is left-wing, Fico has used rhetoric similar to Trump’s.

Fico even compared Trump’s assassination attempt in July to his own wounding in a shooting in May.

“It’s a copy scenario,” Fico said. “Donald Trump’s political opponents are trying to jail him, and when they fail, they enrage the public so much that a loser picks up a gun.”

Like Trump, Fico has shown contempt for the mainstream media and has declared war on illegal immigration. Fico has been criminally prosecuted for organized crime, which he described as politically motivated. The case was ultimately dismissed.

The Slovak leader has condemned the Western approach to the war in Ukraine and canceled arms deliveries to Kiev.

Fico, like Orbán, is known for his pro-Russian views, opposes EU sanctions on Moscow and has said he would prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.

___

Suzan Fraser in Ankara, Turkey, Isabel DeBre in Buenos Aires, Krutika Pathi in New Delhi and Karel Janicek in Prague contributed.