Mexico is preparing for a new Trump presidency after threats of tariffs, deportations and attacks

MEXICO CITY — The election of Donald Trump — whose campaign included incendiary proposals on tariffs, immigration and combating drug trafficking — is sending shockwaves through Mexico, a country with close economic, social and cultural ties to its northern neighbor.

The president-elect’s pledge to impose high taxes on goods imported from Mexico – up to 100% or more on vehicles – is seen as a major threat in a country heavily dependent on trade with the United States.

“It’s a disaster,” Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, an economics professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, said of Trump’s election. “I mean, it couldn’t be worse.”

Mexico’s economy — driven almost exclusively by trade, with more than 80% of exports sent north of the border — is already on the brink of recession after years of sluggish growth, Moreno-Brid said.

The peso fell to a two-year low against the dollar on Wednesday on fears that Trump will keep his tariff commitments.

“We must take Trump’s threats and promises seriously,” Martha Bárcena, a former Mexican ambassador to Washington, wrote on the social media platform X on Wednesday. “It is not just campaign rhetoric.”

Economists had warned that even a small increase in tariffs on Mexican goods could lead to more unemployment and poverty, potentially causing more people to migrate to the United States.

“We are already at a very vulnerable point. Now Trump is coming to attack us even more,” Moreno-Brid said. “We really didn’t need this.”

The historic agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada – which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement during the first Trump administration – will be reviewed in 2026. It remains unclear which revisions Trump will pursue, but the multibillion-dollar agreement is crucial for the Mexican economy. .

The hope of many in Mexico is that Trump’s actions, once in power, will prove less harsh than his bombast during his campaign. Eight years ago, Trump launched his election bid denouncing Mexican immigrants as criminals and “rapists,” but later developed a close working relationship with Andrés Manuel López Obrador when the leftist became president. The two men called each other friends.

The new president of Mexico, Claudia SheinbaumWednesday intended to downplay the concerns. “There is no reason to be concerned,” Sheinbaum, López Obrador’s successor, told reporters. “There will be a dialogue.”

The two countries have closely integrated supply chains that, experts say, could put a brake on Trump’s provocative tariff plans. U.S. companies have ownership control or other financial interests in many Mexican manufacturing companies.

“In economic matters, pragmatism dominates the interests of the United States,” columnist Kimberly Armengol wrote Wednesday in the Mexican newspaper Excélsior. “The interests of the United States regarding Mexico transcend intraparty divisions.”

According to U.S. figures, two-way trade between the United States and Mexico amounted to more than $800 billion last year, making Mexico the United States’ most important trading partner.

“We will continue to work in a very important way with business leaders in Mexico and those in the United States who have their investments in Mexico,” said Sheinbaum. “In this case there are no differences – on the contrary, there is a lot of unity to strengthen the national economy.”

Trump has suggested that tariffs would also be part of his strategy to tackle the drug trade.

“We will immediately stop the drugs flowing across our border,” Trump told a crowd in Pittsburgh on Monday. “Every damn thing they sell in the United States is going to get a 25% tariff until they stop bringing drugs in. And let me tell you something, those meds will stop so damn fast that your head will spin. .”

Moreover, Trump has raised the possibility of using the US military to take down the country Mexican drug cartels– an idea widely rejected in a country that has suffered several historic invasions from the north. Many in Mexico do not take the idea of ​​military deployment seriously.

“He’s just saying that to make noise,” said Alejandro Vázquez, a bookseller in Mexico City, who was asked about Trump’s plans. “It’s a publicity stunt.”

On immigration, Trump has made it clear that he will take steps to restrict migration routes, likely cutting migration CBP One smartphone app. That program has allowed more than 800,000 asylum seekers from around the world to enter the United States with provisional status after interviews at U.S. border crossings.

Also likely on the chopping block in the new Trump administration is a humanitarian parole program that Biden established for citizens of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela, as well as a program that allows Central American children to apply for refugee status in the United States. , according to Adam Isacson, a border researcher at the Washington Office on Latin America, a think tank.

Trump could also use the threat of tariffs to revive the Remain in Mexico program, which required asylum seekers to remain in Mexico until their appointment in U.S. immigration courts.

Some observers predict a revival in migration in the coming months. This week, more than 2,000 migrants launched a “caravan” north from the southern city of Tapachula, Mexico.

“We can expect an increase in migration in the coming months as people try to reach U.S. territory before the new administration begins closing existing routes,” Isacson said.

Meanwhile, many in Mexico were concerned about Trump’s promises to deport millions of people immigrants in the US illegally, Many of them have Mexican nationality.

“Trump can do whatever he wants now. He is getting all the support he needs,” said Irineo Mujica, head of People Without Borders, a migrant advocacy group. “Migrants will rush to the border to get in before Trump takes over.”

Beyond the humanitarian toll, mass deportations could devastate Mexico’s economy: Every year, immigrants in the United States send about $60 billion back to relatives and others in Mexico. That one transfers represent a pillar of the Mexican economy.

“He can’t send all the Mexicans back from the United States, can he?” asked Emi Pérez, a street vendor in the capital. “Who is going to do all the work in the United States if there are no Mexicans?”