Can Donald Trump’s victory end the war in Gaza and bring the hostages home?

WASHINGTON— For months, Donald Trump has said during his campaign that he even wants the war in Gaza to end reportedly setting a timeline for Israel to end its campaign against Hamas in the Palestinian territory upon his inauguration.

He too warned at the Republican convention that if Hamas does not release its hostages before January 20, it will pay “a very high price.”

But will the campaign pledge translate into real-world results? And will it achieve the return of the hostages – a goal shared by Israelis and Jews of all political persuasions?

The answers, according to Middle East policy experts, depend on details Trump has not yet offered; about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces pressures that go far beyond Trump; and, to some extent, on the definitions of the words ‘war’ and ‘end’.

Several analysts said they expected the fighting to continue in some form despite Trump’s warnings.

“The war in Gaza, the intensive fighting, ended months ago. What we have now is a counterinsurgency,” said Shira Efron, senior director of policy research at the Israel Policy Forum, an organization that seeks the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel.

“Israel could say, OK, we’ve ended the war in Gaza, but we’re going to be here for, I don’t know, 10 years until we can hand it over to a trusted partner,” she said. “And this is something Trump might agree to.”

Mark Dubowitz, the chairman of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, which favors a confrontational stance in dealing with Iran and its allies, said he believed Trump understood that Israel would continue to cooperate militarily with its enemies. In a conversation with Netanyahu before the latest Israeli attack on Iran, Trump the Prime Minister was said to have said this“Do what you have to do.”

“I don’t think the new Trump administration is under any illusion that ‘ending the war’ essentially means no more Israeli operations in Gaza or in southern Lebanon or against Iran,” Dubowitz said. “I think what (Trump) is talking about is major ground operations in Lebanon and major ground operations in Gaza.”

It is unclear whether Trump would consider the war over if military operations take place in Gaza and Lebanon. As with many aspects of his agenda, the president-elect has provided few details about his vision for ending the conflict in the Middle East.

“I would say he expects them to end it by winning it 100%, that’s how he always talks about ending wars,” said a Jewish spokeswoman for the Republican Party, Elizabeth Pipko, An Israeli broadcaster said this on Wednesday. Pressed to explain how a decisive victory could come quickly now that Israeli forces have been waging a grueling war in Gaza for more than a year, she blamed the Biden administration for preventing “decisive” action.

It is also unclear whether an end to the war, according to Trump, would mean an end to what is left of Hamas. The terror group, which remains nominally in control of Gaza despite being beheaded and routed by Israeli forces, has so far stated unequivocally that it will not agree to a ceasefire agreement that would allow the release of hostages without a complete cessation of hostilities. withdrawal of all Israeli forces.

Efron noted that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have been specific in outlining how they want the war to end. That solution includes a release of the hostages and a wave of humanitarian aid to the Palestinians in Gaza. In contrast, she said, “I’m not sure we know where Trump and his people are going to be,” Efron said.

Jeremy Ben-Ami, the president of J Street – the liberal Jewish lobby in the Middle East has called for a ceasefire for months he supported Harris and criticized Netanyahu’s government — saying he could not predict whether Trump’s election would hasten the end of the war. Before the election, Ben-Ami said he believed Netanyahu was positioning himself to declare victory if Trump won.

“Who knows is the honest answer,” he said. “There is no such thing as a coherent foreign policy. There is no coherence to what is happening around Donald Trump, and I have absolutely no idea what his policies will be in 74 days, and I imagine he doesn’t either.”

That has left plenty of room for Middle Eastern insiders to speculate about what both Trump and Netanyahu might be thinking, and where the light of day might be between them.

“On Netanyahu’s side, I think he hopes he has a freer hand with Trump when it comes to Gaza in general,” said David Makovsky, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank that consults with both the US and the Gaza Strip. Israeli governments. He added: “He probably feels like the Trump administration won’t put him under the same kind of scrutiny.”

But Makovsky said if Netanyahu thought he had completely relieved pressure from the United States with Trump’s election, he could soon be in for a rude awakening. Trump told the public during his campaign, including Arab-Americans in Michigan, that they could expect “peace in the Middle East” if he became president. Trump also faces pressure from the Republican Party’s isolationist flank — including newly elected Vice President JD Vance — which opposes foreign entanglements and has warned of conflict with Iran.

“I think Trump is thinking about the breakthrough in the Middle East that he would like, and that’s what the Saudis want,” he said. “But the Saudis say, ‘You can’t have a breakthrough, Abraham Accords 2.0, if Israel is at war in Gaza.’ I don’t think Netanyahu is as confident in his relationship with Trump as some people think.”

Offir Gutelzon, an Israeli expat living in the Bay Area who founded a group, UnXeptable, which protests against Netanyahu in solidarity with Israeli anti-government activists, said he did not believe Trump would be more successful than Biden in under pressure Netanyahu’s move to put an end to the terrorist action. war in Gaza.

Trump or not, Netanyahu faces pressure from his right wing, which favors continuing the war until Hamas is crushed and downplays the return of the hostages.

“We are in a situation where Netanyahu has to hold on to this government until the end of the budget (which must be approved on December 31), and therefore unfortunately he cannot implement anything due to his political survival needs,” Gutelzon said. said.

Gutelzon pointed to the fact that Netanyahu this week fired Yoav Gallant, the defense minister who argued that Israel had achieved its goals in Gaza and pushed for a post-war plan, as a sign that there is no end to the war or the hostage situation in sight . , with or without pressure from Trump.

“Firing Gallant is not a good sign for the hostages,” said Gutelzon, whose organization works with hostage families. “I honestly don’t know what Trump can do that Biden hasn’t done – we hear from the hostage families themselves that the main obstacle to the hostage deal is Netanyahu and his government. And that’s why it’s up to the government in Israel, not the president in the US.”

Netanyahu has clashed with Democratic presidents throughout his career, something that is believed to play well with his voter base. But Helit Barel, former director of Israel’s National Security Council, said a clash with Trump, who is popular among Israelis, would not bring the same benefits to the prime minister.

“Fencing battles with Trump are much more difficult for Netanyahu to manage than those with a democratic government, because at least there he scores political points at home,” she said in an interview. “However, Trump is also appealing to Netanyahu’s base and the Israeli public as a whole is really supportive of him.”

For the families of the remaining hostages — including four Americans believed to be alive — the election is a shock in a stalemate that has not returned their loved ones. They urged Trump to work with the Biden administration during the transition period to secure the release of the hostages.

“This is an urgent, catastrophic humanitarian crisis, not a partisan issue,” they said in a statement Wednesday from the Hostages and Missing Families Forum. “Our relatives in captivity in Gaza need a bipartisan coalition of courageous, committed leaders to bring them home.”

It is unclear whether that advice will be followed. During Trump’s first transition to the White House, he and his team famously rejected coordination and support from the outgoing Obama administration.

Ben-Ami said he saw Trump’s antagonism to the war as the only ray of hope after the election.

“If there is any chance that Donald Trump will be an effective messenger to convince Prime Minister Netanyahu and this radical right-wing government that the time has come to declare victory, stop this war and bring the hostages home, that will be positive,” said Ben. – said Ami. “But it doesn’t change the fact that this is an unmitigated disaster for the United States and for the cause of democracy around the world.”

Efron said Trump’s unpredictability could push all sides — including Iran, which has backed Hamas and is now threatening a third direct attack on Israel — to end the conflict.

“The good thing is that because he is unpredictable, even though he has been president for four years – it is quite remarkable that he is still so unpredictable – he creates a kind of deterrent effect.” she said. “I’m sure the same conversations are happening now in Ukraine and China, Taiwan and North Korea, and Iran and Israel: ‘What’s he going to do?’ And we don’t know. And because of this deterrent effect, (Trump) can influence the players.”

With additional reporting by Deborah Danan.