Tom Campbell writes about the Democrats’ election performance

On November 9, 2024By Pranco

Tom Campbell
| Guest columnist

There is no other way to describe the general election than to say that the Republicans won a stunning victory, winning the presidency, the houses of Congress as well as a host of state and local races.

Democrats were stunned and wondered how they could have been so wrong. Frankly, they have misread it or been misled into making false assumptions. It cost them a lot.

Pollsters certainly misled Democrats, repeatedly saying the presidential race was too close to call “battleground states.” The results showed otherwise. Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina were called for Trump before midnight, and at 5:30 a.m. Wednesday morning, Wisconsin provided Trump with more than the 270 Electoral College votes he needed to win outright. Come January, Republicans will control all three branches of the federal government.

Democrats had campaigned on the belief that Donald Trump was an anomaly – he did not speak for the norm of American voters. New York Times reporter Peter Baker said the Democrats’ problem was that Trump and his followers were the norm, and the Democrats were the anomaly. Former Senator Claire McCaskill said anger and fear proved more powerful than calling on our better angels.

North Carolina Democrats’ hopes were buoyed by record early voting voter turnout of 57 percent. But Democrats have misinterpreted warning signs about who voted. Republicans cast the largest number of early votes and the African American vote was much lower than expected.

Trump had defeated Biden in our state by just 1.3 percentage points in 2020. Democrats believed they could overcome that margin. Wrong again. Trump defeated Harris by almost 4 percentage points.

They still missed a red flag. Elaine Marshall, who had consistently been one of the top vote-getters in the seven elections she won as secretary of state, continued to tell friends and supporters that the polls showed her in a tight race this year. Most rejected this option, believing that she would score another easy victory. She won, but by less than 2 percent.

Republican Mark Robinson never played a serious role in the gubernatorial race. It turns out the polls were quite accurate, showing Democrat Josh Stein with a 14-point lead. But given his opponent’s weakness, Stein should have won by more than the actual victory of 14.7 percent. The same goes for the election of the lieutenant governor. State Senator Rachel Hunt, daughter of the four-term governor, squeaked by Hal Weatherman, former chief of staff to Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, who never ran for statewide office. That margin should have been much greater than 1.7 percent.

There were two closely watched Council of State races. Two sitting members of Congress were vying to become our state attorney general: Republican Dan Bishop and Democrat Jeff Jackson. Jackson raised the most money, ran a stronger campaign, and reminded voters that Bishop had been the lead sponsor of HB2, the deeply unpopular “bathroom bill.” Jackson won, but by just over 2-½ points.

The race for superintendent of public instruction had been strange from the start. Michele Morrow defeated incumbent Catherine Truitt in the March primary. Truitt was considered by many to be a good superintendent, but Morrow won Trump’s approval. Like Robinson, she had not been properly vetted. When details about her and her views emerged, she was labeled a radical… or worse. Mo Green, the Democratic candidate and former superintendent of Guilford County Schools, ultimately won, but again by less than 2 percent.

Superintendent of Insurance Mike Causey and Superintendent of Agriculture Steve Troxler were re-elected quite easily. The race for state auditor was a little more interesting. When incumbent Beth Wood resigned, Governor Cooper appointed Jessica Holmes to fill her post until the election, hoping her position would propel her to win office outright. Her opponent, Dave Boliek, was a more active campaigner, raised more money and had experience as chairman of the UNC Chapel Hill Board of Trustees. Boliek won with almost 2 percent.

Two newcomers vied to become the next Commissioner of Labor. Republican Luke Farley, the more visible of the two, won by 5 points. And the state treasurer seat was open, with Republican Brad Briner defeating Wesley Harris by 5 points.

Democrats took a beating in statewide judicial races, with incumbent Democrat Allison Riggs narrowly losing her Supreme Court seat to Jefferson Griffin. Our highest court will now consist of six Republicans and one Democrat. Three Republicans captured the open seats on the 15-member Court of Appeals. The Republican Party will control two of the three branches of state government.

There were a few bright spots for Democrats. They won a seat in the ten-member Council of State and prevented a veto-free majority in the State House. This should help Governor Stein in negotiations with the Legislature.

No matter how you evaluate this election, it was not a good night for Democrats, either in our state or nationally.

Tom Campbell is a North Carolina Hall of Fame broadcaster and columnist who has been covering public policy issues in North Carolina since 1965. Contact him at [email protected].