Ole Miss vs. Georgia, Utah vs. BYU predictions: college football odds, picks

Lane Kiffin finally built a defense line in Oxford.

All transfers failed.

Princely Umanmielen, JJ Pegues, Walter Nolen and Jared Ivey comprise the best defensive line in college football, while linebacker Chris Paul Jr. plays elite football at the second level, both in coverage and against the run.

The Rebels’ front seven ranks first nationally in Havoc, second in sack count and fourth in passes defensed.

Six players have at least 20 pressures this season, and five players have multiple pass breakups.

You can’t run against the Rebels, who are in the top 10 FBS defenses in Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush allowed.

Meanwhile, Georgia’s offense looks shaky: the Bulldogs have fallen outside the top 50 nationally in EPA per Play.

Part of the problem is a mediocre rushing attack, and part of it is a receiving corps that is sorely lacking Brock Bowers.

Still, the biggest problem could be quarterback Carson Beck, who has regressed from last season. He has trouble dealing with the pressure; he has completed just 36 percent of his passes in 66 broken sacks with four interceptions on seven turnover-worthy throws.

Ole Miss will bring a lot of pressure, and I’m counting on Beck and the Bulldogs to succumb to that pressure.

I also hope we get the ‘good’ Jaxson Dart in a desperate situation; the Rebels need a win Saturday to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs can probably lose one more game and still sneak into the 12-team field.

The pick: Ole Miss +2.5.

BOSTON COLLEGE (-2.5) over Syracuse

I have enjoyed watching and betting on the Oranje this season.

I like their pro-style offense led by quarterback Kyle McCord and tight end Oronde Gadsen, and I like running back LeQuint Allen.

But it is time for the Orange bubble to burst.

They’ve won six of eight this year despite putting up -0.16 net yards per play.

They are 4-1 in one-possession games and 2-0 in overtime, including a 38-31 OT win over Virginia Tech last week in a game where the Orange had a 45-yard lead.

Some of that close-game luck is sure to turn around.

Saturday is a good place considering the Dutch are being gassed after last week’s overtime, while Boston College had a bye week – the Eagles haven’t played in 15 days.

The Eagles have had an up-and-down year, but part of that hinged on the health of quarterback Thomas Castellanos.

When he’s at 100 percent, he’s among the most explosive quarterbacks in football, especially on play-action passing.

Syracuse’s defensive line is mediocre at best, which could allow Boston College to establish the run and then burn Syracuse’s hapless, lifeless secondary on Castellano’s play-action darts.

UTAH (+3) over Byu

BYU is 3-0 in one-possession games, +7 in net turnovers and 15-for-18 on fourth-down conversions.

The Cougars are good. There’s no way they should be 8-0. And in the end they would have to lose a game.

Why not against Utah on Saturday?

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Betting on college football?

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Certainly, the Utes’ offense is severely limited without quarterback Cam Rising.

But they can still control the ball somewhat, which will hopefully play against a BYU defense that ranks 106th nationally in EPA per rush allowed.

I’m mostly counting on Utah leaning on its elite defense (ninth nationally in EPA per Play Allowed, seventh in EPA per Pass Allowed) to show up and keep it close at home against an overrated pass-happy BYU squad.

For what it’s worth, Kyle Whittingham’s Utes are 37-26 ATS as underdogs since 2005.

Last week: 2-0. SMU (W). Minnesota (W)
Season 2024: 16-12.

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Why trust New York Post betting

Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball and is a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and every underdog in the house. He found himself on the wrong end of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made amends four years later by hitting a 40/1 long shot over Sandy Alcantara to win the NL Cy Young.