High chance of showers through Veterans Day

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) – AccuTrack first warning shows mostly cloudy skies over Central Alabama this evening, while a stalled front and southerly flow have brought more moisture across the state. There may be some isolated hail showers during the night hours, but not everyone is guaranteed rain. We’ll probably wake up tomorrow morning in the mid-60s with a chance of a stray shower. A cold front will approach our area on Sunday evening, increasing the chance of scattered showers. Tomorrow will likely remain cloudy with highs in the mid 70s. Winds are forecast to be from the south-east at speeds of 16 km/h with gusts of up to 25-30 km/h. Tomorrow it will remain cloudy with occasional showers. The chance of rain increases Sunday night into Monday morning as a cold front moves through the area. Showers cannot be ruled out early Monday morning. An isolated storm is possible, but severe weather is not expected.

Veterans Day forecast: Monday could start with clouds and an isolated chance of rain, but I think the clouds will slowly decrease Monday afternoon, giving us mostly sunny skies. Temperatures on Veterans Day will likely reach the mid-70s. Drier air will move in on Monday evening, making it feel less humid. Temperatures will likely cool to the lower 50s Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 70s.

Looking ahead: Long-range models indicate another cold front arriving later this week. While there is still some uncertainty as to how much rain we could get from this system, for now we expect at least some showers to start late Wednesday afternoon and possibly last into Thursday morning with rain coverage around 40-50% . Behind the cold front, temperatures could be closer to average, with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s heading into the weekend. Overnight lows will finally start to look more like November, with temperatures potentially dipping into the mid-40s this Friday and Saturday morning.

Tropical update: Rafael remains a tropical storm in the central Gulf of Mexico this evening. Wind shear and dry air continue to weaken it. Rafael will swing across the Gulf and eventually drift south towards the Bay of Campeche by the middle of next week, where it will likely weaken to a remnant low as it approaches Mexico. There will be a high current threat off the Louisiana coast this weekend.

We also see a tropical wave approaching the Bahamas, which has a 10% chance of forming. Hurricane season lasts until the end of the month and we can’t rule out a few more storms before the season ends on November 30. The typical place to watch tropical developments in November is the Caribbean.

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