What does Qatar’s suspension of mediation mean for the Gaza war?

Hamas has been weakened by the assassination of leaders Yahya Sinwar in October and Ismail Haniyeh in July, to a point where it is unclear “how you maintain a negotiation process when all the key interlocutors are dead,” he said.

Anna Jacobs, a Gulf analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank, said: “Hamas feels like they have already agreed to a US ceasefire plan this summer.”

But that proposal never led to an agreement.

Jacobs said Hamas believes Israel is “sabotaging the negotiations by continually adding new conditions,” including maintaining a military presence in Gaza.

CAN HAMAS LEAVE QATAR?

Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari pushed back on Saturday (Nov 9) against reports suggesting Hamas would be expelled from the country.

The “main purpose of the (Hamas) office in Qatar is to be a channel of communication,” Ansari said, adding that it had “contributed to achieving a ceasefire in previous phases.”

A senior Hamas official told AFP that the group had received no indication from Qatar that it would have to leave.

Earlier, a diplomatic source told AFP that now Qatar is withdrawing from its mediating role, the Hamas office “no longer serves its purpose”.

Given the denials from Hamas and Qatar, Jacobs said that “it is unlikely that there will be a major, public closure of the Hamas office and the leadership will be kicked out.”

Qatar gave Hamas a similar message in April, prompting several group members to leave for Turkey — only to return two weeks later at the request of the US and Israel, when negotiations proved unworkable.

Krieg said Hamas now appears to be in a “limber situation” and demands are increasing for an expulsion within “a fairly short period of perhaps a few weeks,” with the most likely destination being Iran.

Turkey is being touted as a new host, but the North Atlantic Treaty Organization member is unlikely to want to upset the US, Krieg added.

According to Jacobs, it is possible that Hamas officials will “stay out of Doha until more serious negotiations resume” until the inauguration of newly-elected US President Donald Trump on January 20.