Are the Maple Leafs really better with Matthews injured? - The Hockey Writers - Toronto Maple Leafs

A recent analysis by hockey insiders Nick Kypreos and Justin Bourne has introduced a curious trend to the conversation. The Toronto maple leaves are performing better without their superstar captain, Auston Matthews, in the lineup. The Maple Leafs have one 38-19-2 record without Matthews always. His exceptional skills and leadership make him the center of the team’s attack, so the team’s improved performance in his absence raises questions about why this could be happening.

Could it be a matter of playing style, a shift in team dynamics or just a statistical quirk? Here I discuss Kypreos and Bourne’s discussion and explore possible explanations.

Kyper and Bourne weigh in on the Leafs’ success without Matthews

In their discussion, Kypreos and Bourne analyzed the Maple Leafs’ unexpected 3-0 record during Matthews’ recent absence due to an upper body injury. They pointed out that this is not the first time the team has shown resilience without one of its stars. They had a strong record last season even with top defenseman Morgan Rielly out. According to Bourne, the team’s ability to perform well without critical players suggests they may adapt and adapt their style, and possibly even find a more balanced approach that could serve them well in the long run.

Trying to explain the reasons for the Maple Leafs positive record

Why, thinking logically, are the Maple Leafs improving their win/loss record with Matthews (or, as they note, Rielly) out of the lineup? Is there any logic in this surprisingly strange record? Matthews is one of the stars of the game. Still, the team seems to be playing extremely well without him. What’s going on?

Explanation one: Adjusting to the absence of star players: a pattern?

One point Kypreos and Bourne emphasized was the team’s tendency to overcompensate when a star player like Matthews returns. They suggested that the Maple Leafs might focus too heavily on reintegrating their star players, changing their style to disrupt the chemistry developed in their absence. For example, without Matthews, the Maple Leafs would rely less on a single scoring threat and spread the scoring load among more players. This adjustment makes the team more cohesive and unpredictable, contributing to their success without their top center.

Auston Matthews Toronto Maple Leaves — Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs (Amy Irvin / The hockey writers)

Explanation two: Does Matthews’ style need to be adjusted?

An important topic of debate was Matthews’ approach to high volume shooting, which defines his elite scoring ability. Bourne suggested Matthews could benefit from balancing his shot selection with a more passing-oriented style, especially when playing alongside linemate Mitch Marner. Bourne compared this potential shift to how Brett Hullknown for his focus on scoring goals, adapted in combination with a game formation Adam Oates. By setting up his teammates more, Matthews could create additional scoring opportunities for the Leafs and add versatility to his game.

Explanation Three: Research on the “Superstar Effect” and role balance

Another factor Kypreos and Bourne discussed is the “superstar effect.” When a player of Matthews’ caliber is in the lineup, teammates often defer to him, limiting their scoring opportunities and reducing the unpredictability of the team’s offense. In his absence, secondary players step up and take on more important roles and responsibilities. This increased contribution from the supporting cast could be a reason why the Maple Leafs’ performance temporarily improves without Matthews. Matthews’ presence doesn’t necessarily hold them back. Instead, his absence encourages other players to take their game to the next level and contribute more to the team’s success.

Max Domi Toronto Maple Leafs — Max Domi, Toronto Maple Leafs (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)

Statement four: Defensive responsibility without Matthews

Interestingly, Kypreos and Bourne noted that the Maple Leafs tend to play a more defensively responsible game without Matthews. When Matthews is in the lineup, his offensive drive and willingness to push the pace can create opportunities but also increase turnovers or defensive mistakes. Without him, the team appears to be slowing down and focusing more on structure and defense, reducing the risks for opponents. This tactical adjustment could contribute to the Maple Leafs’ improved record in Matthews’ absence, indicating that a more balanced offensive and defensive approach could pay dividends with him also in the lineup.

So what implication? Should the Maple Leafs part Matthews and Marner?

Another possible adjustment involves the combination of Matthews and Marner. Although they are one of the best duos in the league, Bourne suggested that separating them could maximize their individual strengths. The two players have proven they can excel independently, with Marner flourishing when Matthews is sidelined and Matthews doing well when Marner is out. This separation would allow each player to control their own line, giving the Maple Leafs additional flexibility in their line combinations and potentially making them more effective as a team.

Could Matthews’ return mean a new style for the Leafs?

Kyper and Bourne’s analysis suggests that while Matthews is crucial to the Maple Leafs’ success, his absence presents an opportunity to refine the team’s playing style. If Matthews can adopt a more balanced approach, including passing and strategic playmaking, or if the coaching staff experiments with separating him and Marner, the Maple Leafs could become even more dynamic offensively.

As Matthews prepares for his return, it will be interesting to see if the team can use these insights to reach their full potential. This curious trend of flourishing without Matthews offers food for thought for the Maple Leafs coaching staff and fans alike.