Why it makes perfect sense to give Matt Eberflus one last Hail Mary

It was a Hail Mary pass that sent the Bears plummeting into the bottomless pit where they are currently falling.

Now Matt Eberflus has thrown his own Hail Mary pass in the form of an offensive coordinator change from Shane Waldron to Thomas Brown. He can only hope there’s a Tyrique Stevenson type on the other side who can pass it off to a receiver and save his coaching regime.

It would be nice for Bears fans to think that a move like an OC fire could change their fortunes, but the truth is that there is far too much working against them to prevent their spiral from stopping until it ultimately ends with the dismissal of Eberflus. There are examples of OC sacks that created a team’s immediate success, the latest being in Buffalo where they went 6-1 with Joe Brady after firing Ken Dorsey. But that was a team with the proven, winning structure already in place.

Brown in the lead this time

The fact that Brown is taking over a Bears offense with a system he has worked with for three years gives him an edge over last year, when he had to perform an emergency procedure when the Carolina Panthers called him up.

Brown had only worked under Frank Reich and within that system for six games when he was first tasked with making play calls on offense. His three years under Sean McVay with the Rams represent a better chance that he can succeed with the Bears than last year, when the Panthers averaged 11.4 points per game with his play-calling.

Personnel and how he uses those players is key.

It’s a very familiar situation for Brown because his quarterback is a rookie and the first overall pick was taken. And his team has one of the better defenses in the league.

Last year, Carolina finished fourth in the league in defense, yet won only two games. The Bears now rank thirteenth in defense, but seventh in points allowed and seventh in pass defense. They have given up the fewest passing touchdowns, rank No. 1 in red zone defense and seventh in defensive third-down percentage.

So there are indications that better support for their defense could be a cheering factor.

They played strong complementary football in their three-game winning streak, immediately preceding the current three-game losing streak and Waldron’s firing.

The problems

There are three real problems with this team trying to change offensive coordinators midway and expecting success.

One is a starting quarterback. Another is how far down the hopeless pit they have already fallen. The last is their offensive line.

Even with the experience Brown got last year working with a rookie No. 1 pick in Bryce Young, it wasn’t necessarily positive. Young had a better passer rating when Frank Reich called plays than when Brown called them, 76.5 to 73.1. He didn’t improve and this year was still looking bad until he made big strides in recent games under new head coach Dave Canales.

Expecting a rookie passer to understand every change in coordinators when he’s already struggling to understand the NFL is a real ask. Maybe a veteran can handle it, but a rookie just halfway through his first season will have trouble with all the shifting.

Turning the team around will take more than just working with Williams to restore his and the players’ faith in him. Teammates themselves already seem disillusioned with the whole mess. This is the second problem: how far down the drain they are. Who has already checked out?

A few, like TJ Edwards, have said players haven’t done that.

However, Cole Kmet saw players cheating themselves in practice earlier this season and on Monday, cornerback Jaylon Johnson was on WSCR AM-670’s Spiegel and Holmes for a regular radio spot and hardly acted like this situation was exaggerated when asked if any players were working not as hard as others.

“Yes, there’s no doubt about it,” he said.

It may be the truth, but as long as it is, it reflects poorly on the coaching staff and on Matt Eberflus, who constantly talks about commitment and bases his HITS principle on it.

Fundamentals like these simply don’t change overnight in the middle of a season. There’s no way a team with the lack of momentum and direction depicted in these stories can turn around, regardless of coordinator or quarterback.

It’s all about supporting Williams

Finally, Williams is the future of the team and needs experiences he can fall back on by playing, but getting beat up and tossed around like a rag doll isn’t going to keep him healthy or get him the valuable plays needed to ultimately achieve success.

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The offensive line is broken. There’s no other way to say it.

If three starters are out, they play a third-string center at guard and the two tackles are injured, then the abuse continues. Teven Jenkins is their best lineman and has been injured five of the last six games without missing a start. The Bears have given up 38 sacks, second most in the league. They have allowed 15 in the last two games.

You can watch Williams’ film forever and come to the conclusion that some of the sacks are his fault, but until they can give him the consistent time needed to set up and throw more often, there is no value in their prize rookie is even on the field. They can only hope that the line injuries will end.

For all these reasons, the Eberflus regime seems doomed and the bad thing is that they still have eight games left.

If they move now to fire a head coach, the question is how much value they will bring to Williams in the final eight games.

In any case, Eberflus can lead a defense and perform defensive actions. When Eric Washington did this in Carolina, it didn’t go well.

As long as Eberflus is around, their defense can at least provide some form of support for the problematic offense and give them a fighting chance to get into games.

This in turn provides more value to Williams’ development as he is in tighter situations and not always in trouble. It provides a final vestige of stability from which the QB can learn.

So keeping Eberflus until at least his Hail Mary attempt with Brown is proven to have failed is fair to both him and Williams in terms of stability and development.

Once they know for certain the fate of the team, they can finally fire a head coach later in the season with a few games left, ending the foolish Bears history of never firing a head coach during a season.

With Green Bay, Minnesota, Detroit and San Francisco coming up immediately, and a big break before the 49ers game, it shouldn’t take too long.

Twitter: BearsOnSI