Why Harris Lost (It’s Not Complicated)

Adam Schultz Official photo of Vice President Kamela Harris2021, Library of Congress (reverse)

Conflicting statements from Democratic officeholders and experts

Biden quit too late.
Harris was tapped too early.

Harris did not introduce himself to voters.
She was too famous.

Biden gave Harris impossible jobs.
He didn’t give Harris anything important to do.

Biden should have resigned in support of Harris.
He should never have anointed Harris.

The economy was weak, but Harris said it was strong.
The economy was strong, but voters thought it was weak.

Trump voters are disconnected from the media.
Trump voters are addicted to the blogosphere

Trump is disinhibited.
Harris laughs too much.

Harris failed to court progressive voters.
She was unable to move to the center.

Trump voters are racist and misogynistic.
They are victims of the pandemic and inflation.

The real reasons why Harris lost

She ignored progressive and working class voters.

Harris’ proposal tax increases about millionaires, billionaires and large corporations were modest. She never proposed a wealth tax, stock trading tax, luxury tax or anything else that would have allowed significant cash transfers to the American working class, which makes up about 70% of the electorate. Even Republican voters support bigger tax justice.

It wasn’t until October 23, 2024, ten days before the election, that Harris announced her support for a national minimum wage of $15. $15 is no longer a living wage, even in rural areas with lower-than-average housing costs. In most major cities it is average hourly wage are already higher than that, but still insufficient.

Harris’s main campaign surrogates were wealthy, untouchable Democratic bigwigs like the Clintons and Obamas, who were condescending to working people. She got most of her economic advice from Wall Street, Silicon Valley and Hollywood.

She offered little help to the elderly or retirees.

Trump promised to end taxation of Social Security income, Harris did not. She also has not promised to increase pension benefits. Harris proposed adding benefits for dental care, vision care and home support for seniors. However, these promises were not a major feature of Harris’ speeches or interviews. She didn’t support Medicare for allan idea popular with 80% of Democrats and 60% of independents.

What about parents with young children?

Harris’s proposal to expand access to child care by capping costs at 7% of income for “working families” was paltry and vague on the details. She supported renewing the child tax credit, which would drastically reduce child poverty, but that was not a central theme of her campaign.

Why haven’t we heard more about the environment and climate change?

Harris made almost no mention of these issues during the campaign. Instead, she pledged to support fracking (although she previously opposed it) and enable the continued growth of oil drilling. She boasted (accurately) that there had been “the largest increase in domestic oil production in history” under Biden/Harris.

Indigenous communities turned against the Democrats.

Harris promised no action to increase jobs, improve water quality, clean up pollution or address the Native American health care crisis. Indigenous provinces shifted inward by 10% Trump’s favor compared to 2020.

And then there were black and Latino men; what about them?

Although Black men overwhelmingly voted for Harris (78%), that was 2% less than in 2020 and did not match the 85% of women. Harris’ inability to balance her support for law enforcement with criticism of police harassment violencecould have been a reason. Harris could have reminded black voters that Trump is calling for the return of ‘stop and frisk”, banned by a federal court in 2023. Latino men supported Harris over Trump by only 50 to 47 percent, much worse than in 2020. Was that because she joined Trump in her proposal to ban most immigration from Latin Block America?

Union members in the upper Midwest felt left out.

Harris said little about strengthening the right to form unions. She campaigned with union-busting Republicans Liz Cheney more so than with UAW President Shawn Fain, the most influential and effective union leader in decades. Harris failed to win the support of the Teamsters Union and its president Sean O’Brian. During her meeting with him, she defended Biden’s strong-arming of union members to prevent railroad and UPS strikes.

She ignored or insulted students and young people.

Harris said little about the cost of education, loan repayment or job training. She did not listen to students demonstrating against the Israeli attack on Palestinian civilians in Gaza, and in several cases even did so insulted them. They turned away from her en masse, especially in the most important swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Other anti-war voters fared no better.

Not only did Harris fail to condemn the Israeli genocide in Gaza, she also refused to talk about it with Arab-American and Muslim leaders. A Palestinian-American activist who supported Harris was denied even a brief speaking slot at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. Harris’ surrogate, Bill Clinton offended Arab-Americans in Michigan, an important swing state. In addition to her blind support for Israel, Harris refused to push for an end to the war in Ukraine. It turns out to be blacks, latinos, students and especially everyone else is against American financing of war and genocide.

The above factors are summarized: inflation, inequality and war

Inflation: The 2020-23 price increases, especially for food and… renthave not been reversed – not even close. And because rental costs were already high – often 50% of the working class’s income – the wage increase did not feel like adequate compensation. Although the price passes food wholesalers and retailers and on home rental companies was clear, Biden did nothing to stop it. Harris’s promise, early in her campaign, to stop price gouging (which she dropped under pressure from business interests) fell apart because the remedy was vague, unconvincing, and ultimately unheard of.

Inequality: The real economic story of the past fifty years is the steady increase in economic inequality. Scholars have detailed the increase, but the impact was exacerbated during the pandemic and beyond. The wealthy took shelter in country houses and resorts, or had groceries and restaurant meals delivered to their large homes and apartments. The poor cooked, nursed and made deliveries. Democrats are supposed to be the party of working people, and while Biden’s economic investments helped the economy recover quickly from its sharp pandemic decline, they could not assuage broad anti-working class resentment. Harris was supposed to deliver a populist message of economic progress and even salvation. She offered nothing of the sort.

War: There is nothing like a war, or two wars, to make a national community feel threatened and insecure. The ongoing war in Ukraine is crazy and everyone knows it: every passing day weakens Ukraine’s negotiating position, and has been so since the initial, successful defense of Kiev. And yet it continues, with the very real threat of escalation and even the use of nuclear weapons. The conflict in Gaza is not so much a war as an ethnic cleansing, or even a genocide. Israel is not fighting an army – Palestine has none, only Hamas, a ragtag militia that has already been destroyed. Israel is instead attacking a people and an idea of ​​independence. Students and Arab-Americans in the US are angry and ashamed about it. Polls show Black people and Latinos too. Many have done that mobilized to protest against a genocide.

Conclusion: If Harris had 1) offered a bold plan to lower prices, lower housing costs, and tackle inequality and 2) pursued the institutionally risky but electorally popular strategy of breaking with Biden and bringing a swift end to to promise the wars, she would have done so. won.