Trump's pardon on January 6 could give American extremists new impetus

For dozens of people currently in federal prisons across the country, the election of Donald Trump as president last week meant more than a new political future; it provided a lifeline.

Hundreds of people have been jailed over the past four years for their role in the deadly insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. With the accused instigator of that insurrection set to become president, dozens of violent rioters are being arrested. pinned their hopes on Trump’s promise to pardon the riot, which he recently called “a day of love.”

Trump has repeatedly referred to the captured insurgents as “ political prisoners treated unfairly by one unjust system. While he has made some vague comments about who he will pardon – him told At a conference of black journalists this summer, he said he would “absolutely” free insurgents, “if they are innocent” — the possibility remains that he will pardon every Jan. 6 prisoner on the first day of his presidency.

Such a move, or even a more limited set of pardons, would send a jolt of electricity through America’s far-right ecosystem, including white supremacist groups, the so-called armed “militia” movement and con artists who have promoted baseless conspiracy theories like QAnon. , experts told USA TODAY.

Observers of extremist groups are waiting and watching to see how extensive Trump’s Jan. 6 clemency campaign becomes. At the very least, even a few pardons will be a sign to the country’s far right that its criminal actions that day were justified, experts told USA TODAY. In the broadest sense, a sweeping presidential pardon would send a clear message of support and redemption to the groups and individuals who participated in the assault on democracy, said Joan Donovan, founder of the nonprofit The Critical Internet Studies Institute, whose team monitoring the response to Trump’s election by extremists.

“That signals something very dangerous, not just for America, but for what could ultimately become a civil war,” Donovan said. “I think if Trump pardons some of the more serious vigilantes starting on January 6, it will send a clear message – that he is building a private army.”

If Trump goes so far as to pardon the leaders of the extremist groups who planned and carried out the uprising – who serve the uprising longest prison sentences for Jan. 6 — that will breathe new life into organizations gutted by prosecutions and intimidated by a federal justice system that targets domestic violent extremists, Donovan said.

“If he pardons people who belong to these groups, we will see an increase in recruitment,” she said. “We will also see an increase in groups of people who may turn themselves into right-wing movements.”

Can Trump pardon the January 6 rioters?

Trump’s power when it comes to pardoning the Jan. 6 rioters is extremely broad, said Jeffrey Crouch, a law professor at American University and an expert on the pardon process.

“Clemency is a constitutional power, and the president can use it whenever he wants and however much he wants,” Crouch said.

Trump can only forgive federal crimes, not crimes charged by prosecutors, but that includes anyone prosecuted by the Justice Department for his involvement in the January 6 insurrection.

So far, 663 people have been convicted and imprisoned for their role in the insurrection, according to Luke Baumgartner, a researcher at George Washington University’s Program on Extremism who is tracking the cases. As of Tuesday, 200 people remain jailed on charges related to Jan. 6, excluding defendants who have been sentenced to prison and assigned to a facility but have not yet reported for their sentences.

Crouch said Trump may seek advice from the DOJ’s Pardon Attorney’s Office, but he does not have to. On the first day of his presidency, Crouch explained, Trump could grant sweeping clemency to anyone accused of crimes during the insurrection.

A presidential pardon wouldn’t destroy the freedmen’s records, Crouch explained, but it would set them free — essentially overnight. And, crucially, for the leaders and participants of armed militias, a presidential pardon is the solution any way for that a federally convicted felon to regain their legal access to firearms.

Waiting and waiting for forgiveness

The people still in prison for the January 6 crimes include those serving only a few months for minor crimes, up to the leaders of the extremist groups the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers, who are serving 22 years and 18 years respectively. serving time for their role in a seditious plot.

The Trump campaign has remained tight-lipped about who exactly the new president wants to pardon.

On two separate occasions, when asked for details, a Trump spokesperson told USA TODAY that the president-elect “will make pardon decisions on a case-by-case basis.”

Social media posts from accounts linked to the captured insurgents provide an indication of how those still behind bars view the pardon process. For example, the official Telegram channel of the extremist group the Proud Boys has urged street gang members not to do anything that could endanger the future of their incarcerated colleagues:

“While you may think that your efforts are noble or you want to feel that without your efforts, DJT will not fulfill its promise to free the hostages. It will likely have the opposite effect,” reads a Nov. 7 post.

Lawyers for Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes, who is serving 18 years in prison, told USA TODAY they are cautiously optimistic about the possibility of a presidential pardon.

“Stewart was convicted because of the things he said, and he said a lot of things, but none of them were a violation of the law,” said Rhodes’ attorney Ed Tarpley. “So I think Stewart would be at the top of the list to get a pardon, but we just don’t know how that’s going to work out.”

Meanwhile, Rhodes’ estranged family has accused him of it years of psychological and physical abuseare terrified that he will return to take revenge on them in the small Montana town where they live.

‘I have hidden myself from the world. It’s just a bit much,” Rhodes’ ex-wife Tasha Adams told USA TODAY in a text message. “I don’t even know what to do now.”

Pardon would breathe new life into the far right

The extremist far right in America has had a few quiet years.

The first Trump administration saw the birth of a new white supremacist movement called the “Alt Right,” which sprang to life in 2017 and 2018, spawning racist demonstrations like the deadly “Alt Right.”Unite right” meeting in Charlottesville, VA and fighting street fights between far-right and left-wing counter-demonstrators.

The COVID pandemic saw a unification of far-right groups, including armed militias, conspiracy theorists and white supremacists, who gathered in anti-government and anti-vaccine protests across the country in defiance of lockdown laws.

And the height of America’s burgeoning extremist far-right movement came on January 6 when a crowd of tens of thousands of people, including armed militias, white supremacists, Christian supremacists and conspiracy theorists descended at the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to stop Congress from certifying the results of the 2020 election.

While conservative politicians, commentators and influencers have tried to do just that ever since turn the Capitol riot, in which more than 150 police officers were attacked, was tracked down and charged by the Justice Department and FBI as a peaceful demonstration more than 1,200 Capitol rioters. The prosecution of these cases continued even in the days leading up to the election.

The net impact of these prosecutions, combined with a Democratic presidency promised to eradicate far-right extremismled to the fragmentation by once popular groups like the proud boys. With his founder and leader After going to prison, the Oath Keepers, which once had tens of thousands of members, many of them current and former military and law enforcement officers, largely faded into insignificance.

But as the far right’s popular brands struggled to maintain relevance, the sentiment behind their rise continued to rise never went anywhere.

Throughout the Biden administration, American far-right extremists sought to rebrand themselves, uniting in new popular culture wars, including the fight against trans rights, drag shows for all ages and the banning books Highlighting LGBTQ+ issues in schools.

While the January 6 prosecutions had a “chilling effect” on public displays and protests of the far right, presidential pardons will have an opposite effect on the movement, said Katherine Keneally, chief of threat assessment and prevention at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue.

“It certainly not only has the potential to make people less concerned about participating, but these releases will also be quite public,” Keneally said. “People will be very aware that this is happening, and that in itself, and the media attention, also has the potential to influence recruitment.”

Rachel Carroll Rivas, deputy director of research, reporting and analysis at the Southern Poverty Law Center’s Intelligence Project, which has monitored far-right and anti-government groups for decades, agrees.

When Trump first came to power in 2016, he received support from the far right in American politics, Carroll-Rivas said, but he did not necessarily openly embrace that support. In recent months, Trump has become increasingly close to his most extremist supporters QAnon conspiracy theorists and Christian nationalistsand pardoning the Jan. 6 rioters would send a very clear message, she said.

“The message he’s sending is that it’s acceptable and it’s OK, and he welcomes it as part of his coalition,” Carroll-Rivas said. “That doesn’t mean Trump is saying exactly the same things as all those groups — he’s swinging back and forth on many of them — but it’s clear they’re part of his coalition, and he was fine with it. ”

Of course, Carroll-Rivas said, politicians also make a lot of promises during campaigns. It is possible that Trump will go back on his promise to pardon the January 6 rioters, or grant clemency only to a handful of nonviolent rioters.

But if Trump keeps his word, no one should doubt the direction he takes, she said.

“A pardon sends the message that this was not just another campaign,” she said. “It’s also just who he is and how he wants to govern.”