Projected global warming has not improved in the past three years. The UN climate talks are still ongoing

BAKU – For the third year in a row, efforts to fight climate change have failed to lower forecasts of how warm the world is likely to become – even as countries gather for a new round of talks to curb warming, an analysis by Thursday.

At the United Nations climate talks, taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan, countries are trying to set new goals to cut emissions of heat-trapping gases and figure out how much rich countries will pay to help the world with that task.

But Earth remains on track to become 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial times, according to Climate Action Tracker, a group of scientists and analysts who study government policies and translate them into projections of warming . Recent developments in China and the United States are likely to weaken the outlook slightly.

If emissions are still rising and temperature forecasts are no longer falling, people should be asking whether the United Nations climate negotiations – known as COP – are doing any good, says Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics.

“There’s a lot going on here that’s positive, but overall, actually getting things done to reduce emissions… that feels broken to me,” Hare said.

Climate action is being suppressed by the biggest emitters

The world has already warmed 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial times. That is close to the 1.5 degree limit that countries agreed upon during the 2015 Paris climate talks. Climate scientists say warming of the atmosphere, mainly due to human burning of fossil fuels, is causing increasingly extreme and damaging weather, including droughts, floods and dangerous heat.

Climate Action Tracker makes projections under different scenarios, and in some cases they go up slightly.

One predicted trajectory, based on what countries pledge to do by 2030, is a maximum of 2.6 degrees Celsius, a tenth of a degree warmer than before. And even the analysts’ most optimistic scenario, which assumes that countries all deliver on their promises and targets, is 1.9 degrees Celsius, also a tenth of a degree higher than last year, says lead author of the study Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga of Climate Analytics. of the most important groups behind the tracker.

“This is very much driven by China,” Gonzales-Zuniga said. Although China’s rapidly rising emissions are starting to level off, they are peaking higher than expected, she said.

Another emerging factor not yet included in the calculations is the US elections. A Trump administration that rolls back the climate policies in the Inflation Reduction Act and implements the conservative Project 2025 blueprint would add 0.04 degrees Celsius (0.07 Fahrenheit) to warming projections, Gonzales-Zuniga said. That’s not much, but it could be more if other countries use it as an excuse to do less, she said. And a reduction in U.S. financial aid could also resonate even more with the future temperature outlook.

“For the US, things are going backwards,” Hare said. At least China has a more optimistic future with a potential massive drop in future emissions, he said.

“We should already be seeing (global) emissions falling,” and that is not the case, says Hare. “In light of all the climate disasters that we’ve seen, whether it’s the massive floods in Nepal that have killed hundreds of people, or whether it’s the floods in Valencia, Spain, that have just killed hundreds of people. The political system and politicians are not responding. And I think that’s something that people everywhere should be concerned about.”

Experts say developing countries need $1 trillion in climate money

The big battle in Baku is over how far rich countries will help poor countries decarbonize their energy systems, cope with the future damage of climate change and pay for the damage caused by the extreme weather that is causing warming of the earth causes. The old goal of $100 billion a year in aid is expiring and Baku’s main focus is coming up with a new, larger amount.

A special independent group of experts commissioned by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres released its own estimate of costs and finances on Thursday, calling for a tripling of the old pledge.

“Advanced economies must demonstrate a credible commitment” to helping poor countries, the report said.

A coalition of poor countries is calling for $1.3 trillion in annual climate financing during the Baku talks. According to the independent experts’ report, developing countries need about $1 trillion per year from all external sources, and not just from government subsidies.

Negotiators are still figuring out how much money will be on the table for the final deal, but indications late Wednesday suggested many options were still on the table.

The report details how expensive decarbonizing the global economy would be, how much it would cost and where the money could come from. Total climate adaptation spending for all countries is expected to reach $2.4 trillion per year.

It’s personal for many activists from the countries experiencing the worst and most immediate impacts of climate change, like Sandra Leticia Guzman Luna, who is from Mexico and is director of the Climate Finance Group for Latin America and the Caribbean. “We are observing climate impacts that have many costs, not just economic costs, but also human losses,” she said.

“I come from one of the countries that have to pay and are historically responsible,” said Bianca Castro, a climate activist from Portugal. “Year after year we come to COP and we are heartbroken about what isn’t happening, but we know it needs to happen.”

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