How did the polls perform? Winners and losers

Thursday November 14, 2024

The 2024 elections are in the rearview mirror. Pollsters will not bombard voters with telephone or email polls. Today’s entertainment consists of liberal heads exploding on social media or the newest Democrat threatening but not actually following through on everything from drinking cyanide Unpleasant set themselves on fire or leave the country if Donald Trump were to win the election.

Trump did indeed win by a landslide. He won the Electoral College handily, 312 to 226. Trump also won the popular vote, 50.3% to 48.1%. As a divided country, the popular vote will always be close. In his 49-state Electoral College landslides, only Ronald Reagan gathered 54-55% of the vote in 1980 and 1984.

Opinion polls are an important part of the campaign season. Engaged voters look at the polls like day traders look at the stock market. The daily mood of much of the electorate depends on where their favorite candidate stands in the latest poll and where their popularity is trending.

The ultimate poll took place on November 5, election day. In that poll, Trump received 50.3% and Harris 48.1%, or Trump +2.2%, in the actual election. How accurate were the polls? Which are the winners and which have lost a lot?

Real Clear Politics gave Trump a slightly smaller final victory of +2.1, but how does this number compare to the latest polls before the elections?

Fox News and CNBC were closest, finding Trump +2 in their latest polls. They deserve limited applause; However, as their last election dates were October 11-14 and October 15-19 respectively, several weeks before the elections. They missed several key events that may have moved the votes.

Trump worked at McDonald’s on October 20. Trump’s interview with Joe Rogan was posted on October 26. Trump’s garbage truck to ride was on October 30th. These three sensational news events undoubtedly influenced the vote.

There were two big winners. In their last national poll before the election, published on November 1, Rasmussen reports gave Trump a three-point lead. AtlasIntel showed Trump +1.8 in their last poll from November 1-2. They were both above Trump’s final margin of +2.2. These timely polls, shortly before the election, were spot on.

There are winners and losers, who lost in the polls?

The RealClear Policy average predicted Harris +0.1 in the popular vote. Instead of sharing the blame among all pollsters, which polls shifted the average toward Harris?

The final results of the Ipsos poll were Harris +2, NPR/PBS/Marist had Harris +4, Forbes/HarrisX had Harris +2, Yahoo News had Harris +1 and Morning Consult had Harris +2. Similar results came from TIPP, the New York Post, NBC News and Emerson.

State-level opinion polls were also way off. In New JerseyIn two polls, Rutgers-Eagleton and Cygnal Harris predicted +20 and +12, respectively. The final margin was much smaller, Harris +5.

Kansas the polls were also completely wrong. The Fort Hays State University poll showed Trump at +5, with the final result being Trump at +17.

These polls all underestimate Trump’s popularity and the eventual election.

The biggest loser was the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll. On November 2, pollster Ann Selzer said claimed“Kamala Harris Leaps Over Donald Trump to Take the Lead Near Election Day.” Trump was +4 in September, and on the eve of the election, Harris was +3, a seven-point swing. When the votes were counted, Trump won Iowa by more than 13 points. The difference between the poll prior to the elections and reality was 16 points. This was more than a swing and a miss; it showed up in the wrong city for the game.

Why are some pollsters right off the mark and others way off?

One reason for inaccurate results is the methodology of the polls, specifically the oversampling of Democrats. This could produce more Democratic-favorable but inaccurate results. Extrapolating a survey sample from several thousand to 150 million voters requires a representative sample of the electorate.

Polling results can influence turnout, the single most important measure for determining winners and losers. In other words, why are the polls being held? Are they intended to reflect or influence public opinion?

Depending on the election results, voting can seem like a lost cause if the candidate is behind. Conversely, if one’s candidate is ahead, voting may seem unnecessary.

All professions, from surgeons to financial advisors, have a wide range of outcomes. Pollsters are no exception. Kudos to Rasmussen Reports and AtlasIntel, the two most accurate pollsters for the 2024 election. Here are the polls to pay attention to in the upcoming election.

Brian C. Joondeph, MD, is a physician and writer.

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