Depression strengthens into Tropical Storm Sara. What it could mean for us

Tropical Depression 19 strengthened into Tropical Storm Sara in the Caribbean on Thursday.

In reassuring news for South Florida, WPTV First Alert Weather meteorologist James Wieland said the National Hurricane Center is calling for a weaker storm due to more land interaction.

WPTV First Alert Weather meteorologist Chris Sowers said Thursday evening that Hurricane Hunter aircraft are flying in and out of the disturbance in the western Caribbean today and have found an area of ​​circulation with winds up to 60 km per hour. Just barely tropical storm force!

But still a tropical storm. If you look at the satellite, even though the storm has strengthened, it looks like a ragged mess. It is very disorganized and looks more like a broad low-pressure area than anything tropical.

Sara will find it very difficult to recover in the coming days because of the proximity to Honduras. There will be several hurdles Sara will have to overcome to even pose much of a risk to Florida. The first hurdle is interacting with land, not once, but twice (Honduras and the Yucatán Peninsula).

The second obstacle, assuming Sara survives the first, moves over cooler waters in the Gulf of Mexico. To maintain and strengthen you need a water temperature of at least 80 degrees.

The final hurdle will be a lot of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico.

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The WPTV First Alert Weather team is cautiously optimistic about the recent models.

“The storm will not be as strong or have a chance to become as strong as previous runs of these models have suggested in recent days,” said WPTV First Alert Weather meteorologist Jennifer Correa.

Sara is still expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico next week. However, it may be weaker because it may remain over land for longer once it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.

Wieland said a track further south and then further west has been popular on the models since late Wednesday, and that the NHC has continued to shift its track in that direction.

Tracking close to or over Honduras, Belize, and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula will keep the storm from becoming terribly powerful, and most models predict the storm will not survive by the time it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

There may still be some changes, but now that the NHC is participating, this is a positive step. It’s still a way out, so we remain cautiously optimistic.

However, some leftover moisture will be swept our way next Wednesday and Thursday, and on those days there will be higher rain chances in South Florida.

And for those who like cooler weather, the latest long-range models have a big cool-down period for Thanksgiving that weekend.

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