Prediction Rutgers vs. Maryland: Odds, Expert Picks, QB Matchup, Betting Trends & Stats

Maryland (4-5) opened 3-1 with wins over UConn and @UVA and went with a 27-24 loss to Michigan State, where Maryland had just a 10% win expectancy. Although they lost a 42-28 decision to undefeated Indiana, the Terps actually had the smallest margin of defeat of any team Indiana has played this season, which counts as a moral victory. They were defeated by Northwestern 37-10 before the Terps bounced back to earn a 29-28 victory over USC. HC Mike Locksley’s offense is a passing-oriented program that ranks in the Top 20 in both success rate and completion rate (68.4%). Maryland’s linebacker group ranks 7th in destruction rate and bolsters a credible run defense that ranks 18th in yards per rush and 17th in yards after contact allowed.

The Scarlet Knights (5-4) stormed through their early season schedule with notable wins over @Virginia Tech and Washington as RU opened with a 4-0 record. Since then, however, Rutgers dropped one-score decisions to @Nebraska and UCLA and was crushed by USC and Wisconsin to even their record at 4-4 heading into last week’s game against Minnesota, when they posted a 26- 19 on the Gophers. . Offensively, RB Kyle Monangai leads a credible run game that ranks 14th in YAC and 40th in EPA/rush. Monangai missed the last game, but is already allowed to play against the Terps. RU allows a brutal 50% success rate (13th worst in FBS) while allowing 125th in EPA/rush, but is still considered the 33rd defense in FBS according to SP+.

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Game details and how to watch Rutgers @ Maryland

· Date: Saturday November 16, 2024
· Time: 6:00 PM EST
· Location: SECU Stadium
· City: College Park, MD
· TV/streaming: FS1

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Gaming odds for Rutgers @ Maryland courtesy of BetMGM

The latest odds from Friday morning:

• Moneyline: Maryland (-225), Rutgers (+185)
• Spread: Maryland -5.5
• Top/Bottom: 51.5 points

This game started with Maryland as a three-point favorite, but quickly shot up to a range of -5.5 to 6 in current trading. Rutgers moneyline opened at +150 and has improved to +185. The game total has been corrected upwards from 50.5 to a current high-watermark of 52.5.

NBC Sportsbook Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“These two programs consistently engage in high-scoring stuff as Maryland ranks 5th with a 7-2 record against the Over and Rutgers itself is no slouch hitting the Over at 6-3 clip. Accordingly, I support the more than 51.5 points that can be scored on these two leaky defenses.”

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Quarterback matchup for Rutgers @ Maryland

• Maryland: Billy Edwards Jr. beat out four-star NC State transfer QB MJ Morris for the starting gig and has gotten the job done, completing a commendable 65.7% of his throws for 2,519 pass yards and a 14-to-8 ratio while posting an 81.2 rating noted. PFF offensive grade that ranks as the 23rd best among Power Conference quarterbacks. Edwards has averaged the ball out of his hands in a quick 2.32 seconds, which is the fourth-fastest release time in the country. He leads a fairly conservative Terps passing attack that ranks 118th in 20+ yards passing percentage, and 121st in passing explosiveness.

• Rutgers: HC Greg Schiano moved on from the ineffective 2023, starting QB Gavin Wimsatt in favor of former Minnesota signal caller Athan Kaliakmanis, who transferred this offseason. The change of scenery has benefited Kaliakmanis, who has improved his yards per attempt from 6.2 to 6.8 and lowered his pressure-to-sack rate from 20.5% to 15.0%. The biggest quantifiable gain from an advanced statistical perspective, however, is that Kaliakmanis increased his PFF grade from 58.2 to 74.1. The change of scenery has been beneficial for Kaliakmanis, who will look to beat Maryland and become eligible to bowl for the Scarlet Knights.

Betting trends and recent statistics

• Maryland’s offensive line was strong in pass protection, allowing a 25.3% pressure rate (18th) and a 3.9% sack rate (31st). However, they rank a disappointing 111th with a 10.9% blow run block rate, and 102nd in yards before contact (1.33).
• Maryland WR Tai Felton is averaging 8.9 receptions per game, which leads the FBS and ranks second in the FBS behind San Jose State WR Nick Nash with 9.6 receptions per game.
• RU is tackling opponents for a loss on 13.6% of the rush attempts they have faced, 57th out of 67 Power Four teams. Washington ranks last with a TFL rate of 8.9%.
• Rutgers ranks 125th nationally with a 53.8% completion percentage, and 27th in FBS with an average of 7.0 air yards per completion. The Scarlet Knights consciously sacrifice accuracy in favor of explosive downfield passing plays.

BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

Line movement (last week to now)

• Ohio State +350 to +300
• Texas +550 to +450
• Ole Miss +3500 to +1000

Highest ticket%

• State of Ohio 14.0%
• Texas 11.5%
• Georgia 10.6%

Highest Handle%

• State of Ohio 17.7%
• Georgia 16.3%
• Texas 11.4%

Biggest obligations

• Colorado
• State of Ohio
• Tennessee

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