Morning Coffee: Will Mahomes perform in the underdog role again on Sunday?

The regression of the Washington Commanders was inevitable.

Fortunately, we were able to identify the precise moment of arrival.

A relatively subpar performance from Jalen Hurts combined with two missed field goals and a missed extra point from Philadelphia Eagles kicker Jake Elliott allowed the Commanders to hang around for a while on Thursday Night Football.

Finally, Saquon Barkley got going and the Eagles outscored Washington 20-0 at one point in the second half, en route to an easy win and coverage as 4.5-point favorites at FanDuel.

Barkley finished with 198 yards and two scores.

Kenneth Gainwell averaged 10.8 yards per carry on his way to 43 rushing yards to go along with the 14.5-plus rushing yards.

Hurts never really looked comfortable, going 18 of 28 for 221 yards with two sacks and finishing with a 44.6 QBR.

Luckily for the Philly home fans, their rushing offense and defense were able to make up for Hurts and Elliott’s struggles in the win.

My Thursday Night Football bets went to 3-2 after AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith couldn’t get me the 27 receiving yards I needed for the 5-0 sweep.

Fortunately, Barkley and Gainwell delivered, and the Eagles won, playing a game in which they nearly doubled the Commanders’ total yards.

We were able to accurately predict the timing of an inevitable regression for a Washington team that has now dropped back-to-back games after a 7-2 start.

As I turn the page this morning, I’ll do my best to identify some FanDuel Best Bet winners for a few highly anticipated NFL Sunday matchups.

This is the Morning Coffee of Friday, November 15, 2024.

Will Mahomes perform again in the role of Underdog on Sunday?

If you’re a fan of the NFL, then you’ve probably heard by now that Patrick Mahomes has had some success in his career as a betting underdog.

If you’re just betting on Mahomes to cover every road and neutral field game he’s played as an underdog, you’ve never lost a bet.

Mahomes is 12-0-1 against the spread in his career as an underdog on the road or at a neutral site, including playoffs.

He has won five straight games as an underdog and is 11-3 straight as an underdog in his NFL career.

Of course, those numbers are relevant this week as the Buffalo Bills are a 2.5-point favorite against the Kansas City Chiefs in one of the most highly anticipated games on the regular season schedule.

The Bills desperately need a win over Kansas City to avoid walking away with the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

Unfortunately for Buffalo, the Chiefs should be just as motivated after a few close wins to push their perfect record to 9-0.

It also won’t help the Bills that rookie Keon Coleman will miss this game with a wrist injury, tight end Dalton Kincaid has not practiced due to a knee injury, and Amari Cooper has been limited in practice again this week with a wrist injury. .

Kansas City lost kicker Harrison Butker, but they should get JuJu Smith-Shuster back after he was a full participant in practice on Thursday.

While Isiah Pacheco returned to practice, head coach Andy Reid said he is unlikely to play in Buffalo as he is limited this week.

I have two bets that I have circled for Sunday’s game.

The first is a builder Same Game Parlay with Chiefs +10.5, Travis Kelce 40+ receiving yards and DeAndre Hopkins 25+ receiving yards at odds of -104.

The Bills may not have the best offensive weapons, so even if they find a way to win Sunday’s game, Mahomes and company should be able to keep it close.

I’ve also circled Samaje Perine receiver as a brace to watch for Sunday.

Perine with over 7.5 receiving yards has surrendered five straight while gaining over 22 receiving yards in all five games.

The Bills have allowed the most receptions (6.6) and most receiving yards (54.5) in the NFL to opposing running backs this season.

Once Pacheco is officially ruled out, we should see a receiving yards number for Perine at FanDuel.

I would recommend the over 7.5 as a FanDuel Best Bet if we see him again this weekend.

In the meantime, in case you missed it, I’ve also already nailed down a FanDuel Best Bet for Sunday’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens.

George Pickens has recorded at least 74 receiving yards in all three games with Russell Wilson at quarterback.

Now he faces a Baltimore defense that has allowed a career-high 199.2 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers this season.

Ja’Marr Chase just passed for 264 yards and three touchdowns against this Ravens secondary.

If Pickens can get me a quarter of that production, this bet will win.

Pickens’ 65.5 receiving yards is a FanDuel Best Bet.

There are a few other possibilities that I’ve circled for Sunday’s NFL games as we wait for a full list of props to be filled out once the injury reports are resolved.

In the meantime, our man Luke Bellus took a look at some of the new prop bets available at FanDuel for the 111th Gray Cup.

You can also check back later today for Drew Morrison’s best bet for Sunday’s championship match.

Make sure you follow me @Domenic_Padula on X for all my Sunday NFL plays.

Have a nice day everyone!