A larger Republican majority in the Arizona Legislature could jeopardize the Democratic governor’s agenda

PHOENIX — Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs had hoped fellow Democrats would make enough gains in this month’s elections to flip one or both chambers of a state closely controlled by Republicans, allowing the path for her policy agenda would be eased ahead of the 2026 re-election campaign.

Instead, the opposite happened.

Rather than lose their legislative majorities in the state, Republicans expanded them. And even some more moderate Republicans who were willing to work with Hobbs on issues lost their seats — not to Democrats in the general election, but to hardline conservatives in the Republican Party primaries.

It was evidence that the national red wave that allowed former President Donald Trump to win another term in the White House and Republicans to retake the Senate had also reached Arizona. Although Democrat Ruben Gallego narrowly won the open race for the US Senate, Trump carried Arizona this time, four years after losing it to President Joe Biden.

Barrett Marson, a Republican strategist in the state, predicted that Hobbs’ legislative agenda would be one of the casualties of Republican gains.

“She may have to work with the Republican Legislature a little bit more than she probably has in the past or would like to, so there are some things she may have to swallow that she didn’t want to do,” Marson said. are bills she may have to sign because it’s “good politics” for a re-election campaign.

While Hobbs’ staff insists she will continue to work across the aisle as she always has, Republicans indicate this year could make it much more difficult for Democrats’ plans to expand reproductive rights, access to facilitate voting and address the state’s water shortage.

Hobbs played an active role in efforts to turn the chambers over to the Democrats. During the 2024 election cycle, her political action committee raised even more than the $500,000 she pledged to help fund Democratic candidates and participated in more than two dozen events to boost them.

“It’s so important to tell voters to vote all the way to their ballot,” Hobbs said last month, as he gathered a crowd of about 75 volunteers gearing up for an election in a north Phoenix district they called ‘ground zero’ for reversing the legislature.

Democrat Judy Schweibert, a former teacher and state representative who ran for Senate, was among the candidates who endorsed Hobbs. Republican Shawnna Bolick, who was nominated to the seat by local officials, defeated Schweibert to retain it.

Republicans are poised to use their expanded majority to move forward on an agenda packed with conservative issues, including school choice and border security, according to House Speaker-elect Steve Montenegro.

Montenegro cited the Republican Party’s 2024 win as evidence that Hobbs is out of touch with Arizona voters and said he wanted to build on the successes of outgoing Republican leadership.

Under Hobbs’ tenure, Republicans killed virtually every Democratic policy agenda she tried to advance. During the most recent legislative session, Republican lawmakers rejected Hobbs’ attempt to rein in the expansion of the school voucher program, which had ballooned the deficit. Even in the latest round of budget cuts, the program was cut by only $2.5 million.

“Even though Democrats spent tens of millions of dollars trying to flip the chambers, they were unable to do so,” Montenegro said. “The people of Arizona rejected that message.”

In the eyes of Democrats, Montenegro leans even further to the right than outgoing House Speaker Ben Toma, the architect of a ballot measure that would allow local police to arrest migrants suspected of illegally entering the state from Mexico . Arizona voters passed the measure, but enforcement of some provisions depends on the legal fate of the Texas law it mirrors.

Democratic strategist DJ Quinlan called Montenegro a “bomber” and said he believes Montenegro is willing to send Hobbs more socially conservative bills than Toma, especially on reproductive rights and LGBTQ+ rights, which are destined to fail by a Hobbs -veto.

Quinlan said that while the dynamics of divided government are largely the same, the voices of more moderate conservatives have disappeared. Among them was Senator Ken Bennett, who sided with Democrats earlier this year to defeat an anti-transgender referendum. He lost the Republican Party primary to Mark Finchem, a staunch supporter of the false claim that former President Donald Trump lost his 2020 reelection bid due to widespread fraud.

As Republicans expand their majorities, one of Hobbs’ only ways to bypass the legislature is to sign executive actions.

“I think she will also take every opportunity to advance her agenda, which in some cases may have to be done by using her authority as governor,” Quinlan said.

Hobbs recently took a step toward exercising more of her executive power to advance her party’s priorities. They and the Arizona Department of Water Resources have taken the first step toward regulating groundwater use in the rural southeastern part of the state.

In her first two years in office, Hobbs vetoed 216 Republican-backed bills, including one that would have forced public schools not to call transgender students by their chosen name or pronouns. Another would have allowed parents with concealed carry permits to be protected from prosecution if they brought their firearms into gun-free zones. Marson said he expects more vetoes from Hobbs in the coming session.

Sam Paisley, a spokesman for the national Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said large amounts of advertising money spent on the presidential race and controversial voting issues make it costly and difficult for downvoted legislative candidates to name-check with the public. build. She added that Democratic voters are more likely than Republicans to not cast a vote in down ballots.

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