Heavy storm possible on Monday morning

WACO, Texas (KWTX) – The First Alert Weather Team will be closely monitoring a strong cold front moving into the area on Monday due to the potential for severe weather. Monday is the next First Alert Weather Day as severe weather is expected in at least part of Central Texas.

Despite the best storm chances arriving in the early morning and morning hours on Monday, there will be a severe storm risk as a strong cold front moves through the area and an area of low pressure crosses the state.

Our next First Alert Weather Day is next Monday. Although we may only see a few... — Our next First Alert Weather Day is next Monday. While we may only see a few scattered strong storms on Monday, these storms could have a major impact on morning commutes. Strong storms could bring us straight gusts, but some hail and even a stray tornado could also be possible.(KWTX)

The main risk of severe weather from Monday’s strong storms will come from straight gusts of wind that could be nearly 65 MPH during the strongest storms.

Although we mainly pay attention to gusty winds, the strongest storms can also contain up to a quarter hail.

The tornado risk with Monday morning’s storms is low, but it is entirely possible for a stray tornado to form. Because instability in the atmosphere is low but wind shear is high, any tornadoes that form should be relatively short-lived and likely weak.

We’re not quite sure exactly when Monday’s storms will move through, but the latest forecast model data suggests storm chances will be greatest for our area. between 5 a.m. and 11 a.m.

During this time of year, cold fronts tend to move a little faster than forecast model data suggests, so the severe weather window could move up a little earlier in the day on Monday. As the severe weather time frame moves up, the strongest storms could impact the I-35 corridor during the busiest time during the Monday morning commute and during drop-off time for many schools.

As is common with severe storms arriving along cold fronts, the western half of the area will experience storms and likely dry out before the eastern half of the area sees the storms pass.

Moisture will return in abundance this weekend, giving way to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly near and east of I-35. Fortunately, Sunday’s storms will likely remain minor, but 40 MPH wind gusts, downpours, along with lightning and thunder will be the main storm hazards.

Futurecast shows that our next storm system moving through Central Texas on Monday will… — Futurecast shows that our next storm system moving through Central Texas on Monday could bring us severe weather to start the work week. Scattered, non-severe storms on Sunday will give way to strong storm chances, especially Monday morning.(KWTX)

While there is a chance of scattered storms after sunset on Sunday and before the main line of storms arrive, overnight storms are also likely to remain substandard.

Monday’s cold front and associated storms will likely move into our area a few hours before sunrise and gradually move from west to east. Storms arriving west of Highway 281 as early as 5 a.m. should move steadily and arrive at I-35 around or shortly after 8 a.m. For cities and towns east of I-35, storms likely won’t have much impact on morning commutes, with the largest storm window from about 9 a.m. to 11 a.m.

Right now, it looks like there will be about an hour to two hours of rain in most areas before drier air arrives and puts an end to the storms.

Parts of northwestern Texas and Oklahoma could see 2"+ of rain, but Central Texas may only see... — Parts of Northwest Texas and Oklahoma could see more than an inch of rain, but Central Texas could only see about an inch to an inch of rain, with isolated higher totals.(KWTX)

Rainfall totals may be limited on the front end, but most areas should see between a quarter and a half inch of rain, with higher totals during downpours.

We’ve been pointing out all week about the likelihood that cooler than normal temperatures will return next week, and while colder air is still expected to arrive, the lowest temperatures could potentially point more toward the southeastern U.S. and not the plains.

We've been tracking a cold front for a few years now that will move through Central Texas next week... — We’ve been tracking a cold front for a few days as it moves through Central Texas next week, but it seems more likely than not that the cold won’t be as cold and won’t last as long. Look how quickly the cooler air leaves!(KWTX)

In addition to our temperature forecast coming up, it also looks like the temperature drop won’t last that long either. In fact, we may only spend two days with below-normal high temperatures next week!

The average date of our first freeze in a winter season is November 21st. Earlier this week it looked like we would see our first freeze almost right on time! Since the coldest air will likely miss us to the east, we may not see our first freeze until around or maybe even after Thanksgiving. Since 2000, there have been only two winter seasons in which the first freeze occurred in December. This winter is moving in that direction.