College football predictions for week 12 games according to expert model

Week 12 of the college football season brings us another delicious menu of November action with major and potential automatic-bid playoff teams looking to make a statement. Let’s take a look at the latest predictions for the top matches based on an expert analytical football model.

We have a clearer, albeit incomplete, picture of where things stand nationally following the release of the second College Football Playoff rankings, and after last week’s notable changes in the polls and seedings, it’s It is clear that there is still plenty to play in the premier league throughout the country. conferences.

What do the analytical models suggest for the key action of week 12?

Looking ahead to this week’s games, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on an expected scoring margin per game.

The rules are from FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change

Ohio State vs. Northwestern

What the model says: No surprise perhaps, but the Buckeyes are a consensus selection with a better than 95 percent chance of beating the Wildcats on the road, but they can’t afford to look ahead to next week’s game against undefeated Indiana.

Line: Ohio State -28.5

Prediction: Ohio State with 27

ATS choice: Northwest +28.5

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Texas vs. Arkansas

What the model says: Texas is ahead of the rival Razorbacks in 86 percent of computer simulations against a Hogs defense that is among the SEC’s worst against the pass, while the Longhorns are just about the best at throwing the ball.

Line: Texas -12.5

Prediction: Texel with 16

ATS choice: Texas -12.5

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Utah vs. Colorado

What the model says: The Buffaloes are in second place in the Big 12 and have their proverbial destiny in their hands. They have a 75 percent chance of beating the Utes at home and keeping Coach Prime’s team in the playoffs deep into November.

Line: Colorado -12.5

Prediction: Colorado with 10

ATS choice: Utah +12.5

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Clemson vs. Pittsburgh

What the model says: Clemson is the road favorite with a 69 percent chance of beating the Panthers, who are in a costly two-game skid after starting 7-0 this year, but we’ll see if Pitt’s excellent front seven can pull off any surprises in have in store. the Tigers attack in must-win mode.

Line: Clemson -11.5

Prediction: Clemson with 7

ATS choice: Pittsburg +12.5

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Tulane vs. Navy

What the model says: Navy is clinging to hope that it can make the AAC title game, but Tulane is the favorite with a 74 percent chance of winning, which, if so, would clinch a spot in that game, with the selection committee keeps a close eye on developments there. . Both teams are very good on the ball.

Line: Tulaan -7.5

Prediction: Tulane by 9

ATS choice: Tulaan -7.5

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Mercer vs. Alabama

What the model says: Cupcake Week comes a little early for the Crimson Tide, who have a better than 99 percent chance of cruising with a date at Oklahoma next and the Iron Bowl after that in the top dozen of the College Football Playoff bracket this week.

Line: Alabama -41.5

Prediction: Alabama with 45

ATS choice: Alabama -41.5

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Penn State vs. Purdue

What the model says: A virtual lock for the Nittany Lions with a 97 percent chance of eliminating the hapless Boilermakers on the road and taking the next step toward what should be an 11-1 record if all goes according to plan.

Line: Penn State -29.5

Prediction: Penn State with 31

ATS choice: Penn State -29.5

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Virginia vs. Notre Dame

What the model says: Virginia just knocked off Pittsburgh on the road, but the index doesn’t foresee such luck against the Irish, who have a 96 percent chance of staying in the win column, and by a nice healthy margin, too, which the selection committee said again this year should appease. week.

Line: Notre Dame -22.5

Prediction: Notre Dame on 28

ATS choice: Notre Dame -22.5

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Boston College vs. SMU

What the model says: The Mustangs sit all alone atop the ACC standings and can stay there as the Eagles undergo a quarterback change this week, with an 87 percent chance of winning outright and remaining perfect in conference play.

Line: SMU -17.5

Prediction: SMU by 17

ATS choice: Boston College +17.5

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Louisville vs. Stanford

What the model says: The path to a nine-win season is in place for the Cardinals, who sit fourth in the ACC this week and own the win over Clemson, with a 91 percent chance of beating Stanford.

Line: Louisville -20.5

Prediction: Louisville by 21

ATS choice: Louisville -20.5

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LSU vs. Florida

What the model says: Two SEC rivals defeated last week have little to play for on paper, but LSU is still mathematically alive in the postseason even if it needs a lot of outside help. Brian Kelly’s team has a 58 percent chance of eliminating the Gators on the road.

Line: LSU-3.5

Prediction: LSU with 3

ATS choice: Florida+3.5

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Missouri vs. South Carolina

What the model says: Much has been said about the Gamecocks’ dominant front seven and their newfound rushing attack over the past few games, and they have a 70 percent chance of taking down Mizzou, which is still something of a playoff talk , albeit in a whisper.

Line: South Carolina -13.5

Prediction: South Carolina with 7

ATS choice: Missouri +13.5

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Boise State, San Jose State

What the model says: The committee’s favorite from the Group of Five has an 83 percent chance of staying on course on the road this week.

Line: Boise State -13.5

Prediction: Boise State with 14

ATS choice: Boise State -13.5

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The State of Arizona vs. the State of Kansas

What the model says: Kansas State is a heavy favorite on the index, with a 75 percent chance of winning this battle between two of the four teams at 4-2 in Big 12 play and desperate to break out of that tie.

Line: Kansas State -7.5

Prediction: Kansas State with 10

ATS choice: Kansas State -7.5

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Oregon vs. Wisconsin

What the model says: Another big road trip for the Ducks, who have a strong 76 percent chance of beating the Badgers in this cross-country matchup and remaining undefeated and atop the Big Ten standings, where they are in a dead heat with the surprising contender Indiana.

Line: Oregon -13.5

Prediction: Oregon with 10

ATS choice: Wisconsin +13.5

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Tennessee vs. Georgia

What the model says: In Game of the Week, the Bulldogs find themselves with their backs against the wall against a Vols team with a question at quarterback following Nico Iamaleava’s injury, but Georgia is still given a solid 62 percent chance to take the game head-to-head win and avoid disaster.

Line: Georgia -9.5

Prediction: Georgia with 4

ATS choice: Tennessee +9.5

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New Mexico State vs. Texas A&M

What the model says: There’s no real threat of an upset here for the Aggies, who enter their season-ending cupcake game with a better than 99 percent chance of winning.

Line: Texas A&M -38.5

Prediction: Texas A&M with 43

ATS choice: Texas A&M -38.5

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Washington State vs. New Mexico

What the model says: John Mateer has this high-powered Cougars offense at 8-1 and ranked in the College Football Playoff, and with an 82 percent chance of winning on the road and keeping this successful season moving toward a decent bowl game.

Line: Washington State -10.5

Prediction: Washington State with 14

ATS choice: Washington State -10.5

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Kansas vs. BYU

What the model says: Don’t forget the Jayhawks, who are starting to build some momentum late in the season, and will test the undefeated Cougars, who have a 61 percent chance of staying that way, showing that the computers in this season really respect have for KU.

Line: BYU-2.5

Prediction: BYU with 4

ATS choice: BYU-2.5

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The game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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