Getting defensive: 2024 week 12

Let’s be honest. For most of the season, most family managers don’t care much about team defense. Unless there’s a ton of big plays or some defensive scoring, they just don’t score enough to swing games.

Some people just come up with a big name and roll it out every week, regardless of the matchup. Other managers (the smart ones) wait until late in the draft, select a defense that has a favorable Week 1 opponent, and then stream defenses based on matchups throughout the season.

But as we approach the end of the season, the margin for error has evaporated for some fantasy managers. Lose one more game and that’s that. There will be no play-offs. Now every lineup decision is a big deal. Every point is so much more important. One bag or takeaway can be the difference between keeping the hope alive and blowing the whistle.

Now every position matters, including defenses and kickers.

Okay, maybe no kickers – let’s not get crazy.

THE DOUBTERS

Pittsburgh Steelers (at Cleveland Browns)

Week 12 starts with one of the best teams in the AFC playing one of the worst – and a game where the Steelers will have to play defense. Cleveland’s offense actually moved the ball well against the Saints last week, but the Clowns still only managed 14 points. The Steelers rank eighth in the league in total defense and second in scoring defense, while the Browns have allowed a league-high 46 sacks and the third most fantasy points per game to defenses. Steelers edge rusher TJ Watt has to be drooling over this matchup.

Minnesota Vikings (at Chicago Bears)

The Vikings are this year’s poster defense for the difference between a good NFL defense and a good fantasy defense. The Vikings are strong against flight, but they can be caught in the air. They’ve also been piling up big plays all season, Boosting NFL defenses in fantasy points most of the season. The Vikings have failed to reach the 10-point mark just twice in ten games, and while the Bears looked better offensively a week ago, they lead the NFC in sacks allowed and have given up the 10th most fantasy points per game of defenses in 2024.

Denver Broncos (at Las Vegas Raiders)

When we last saw the Denver Broncos, the AFC’s No. 1 fantasy defense dropped a piano on the Atlanta Falcons. The Broncos rank fourth in the NFL in total defense, third in the league in scoring defense, lead the NFL with 39 sacks and have scored 13 points. Denver’s defense is on the road this week, but it’s against a floundering Raiders team with poor quarterback play, broken running backs and no particularly reliable pass-catchers outside of tight end Brock Bowers. Only the Tennessee Titans have allowed more fantasy points to defense this season.

Houston Texans (vs. Tennessee Titans)

The Texans have clawed their way to unquestionable status with some stellar defensive performances of late double-digit fantasy points in five of the past six games. Monday’s blowout against the Dallas Cowboys was the best of them all: five sacks, a few takeaways and a fumble for a touchdown. Now Houston heads home to take on a Tennessee Titans team that has led the league in fantasy points given up to defense for most of the year. If you caught Houston for the Dallas game, definitely hold on to them.

Detroit Lions (at Indianapolis Colts)

The Lions are best known for their buzzsaw offense, but that offense also puts the defense in place to make big plays as teams try to catch up. Detroit ranks third in the league in fantasy points among defenses, and the Colts have been a favorable fantasy matchup, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to defenses this year. There’s at least a little risk to this pick, though: the Colts are coming off their best offensive performance of the 2024 season in terms of execution, and the Lions lost No. 1 linebacker Alex Anzalone to a broken forearm last week.

Chicago Bears (vs. Minnesota Vikings)

For this season, the Bears are a top-five fantasy defense. But that ranking is largely due to early-season success — since Chicago’s bye week, the team has barely ranked in the top-12 in fantasy points. The Vikings are kind of a similar story — as Sam Darnold has realized he’s Sam Darnold over the past month, his turnovers have gone up — and so have Minnesota’s points for opposing defenses. Teams that draft the Bears have likely been riding it for a while. Despite only two losses, the Vikes aren’t too bad to call it quits.

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Kansas City Chiefs (at Carolina Panthers)

Considering that Kansas City’s 18th-ranked fantasy defense was in Buffalo last week and scored negative points in some fantasy scoring systems, there’s a good chance that Kansas City is available on the waiver wire in many leagues. If so, now is the time to get it done with shoveling. Yes, the Panthers won two in a row heading into their bye. But the Panthers are still at or near the bottom of the NFL in many offensive categories, Carolina has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to defense this season and the Chiefs are undoubtedly seething after their first loss of the season.

Philadelphia Eagles (at Los Angeles Rams)

The Eagles are just outside the top-12 in fantasy defenses on the season, but they have been doing much better since the bye week. Since Week 6, only the aforementioned Detroit Lions have more fantasy points at the position. The Eagles are being hit in streamer territory by this week’s matchup – the Rams have gotten healthy at wide receiver and along the offensive line, and that showed last week against the New England Patriots. It’s not likely the Eagles will lay an egg this week, but it’s not exactly likely they’ll post a large number either.

Washington Commanders (vs. Dallas Cowboys)

The Commanders have been an up-and-down fantasy defense this season – there have been a few peak weeks, but just as many clunkers. But if you saw how the Dallas Cowboys were defeated by Houston on Monday night, you know why the Commanders appear in this week’s column. The Cowboys were actually a top-10 fantasy play on defense even before Dak Prescott went down before the season. Now, with Cooper Rush under center, Dallas is having all kinds of problems generating offense: 16 points in the last two games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at New York Giants)

The Buccaneers have played extremely well defensively, especially lately. Tampa is allowing the third-most yards per game and sixth-most yards per game in the league this season. But this week brings a delicious matchup with a New York Giants team that will roll out Tommy “Stop Calling Me Danny” Devito as the quarterback coming out of the bye. The Giants have already given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to defense this year. Now the man from the Jersey Mike commercials is under center.

That joke never gets old.

Miami Dolphins (at New England Patriots)

Now we’re all about waiver wire plays – the Dolphins are outside the top 20 in fantasy defenses this year and have eclipsed 10 fantasy points exactly once this season. But as Miami’s offense takes shape, the pressure increases on opponents to match the scores. New England’s offense has played better since Drake Maye took over under center, but the Pats still rank last in the AFC in total offense and 30th in scoring at just 16.5 points per game . They have also given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to defense.

CAVEAT EMPTOR, PEOPLE

Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Baltimore Ravens)

Last week, the Steelers showed it’s possible to at least have a serviceable (two sacks and three takeaways) against Baltimore’s offense. There is no team in the NFL giving up fewer points per game this year than the Chargers. And Los Angeles ranks a respectable seventh in points among defenses this season. But the Chargers’ worst fantasy outing of the season came last week against the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Ravens lead the NFL in total offense and have given up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to defense through 11 weeks.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X @IDPSharks.