GT Investigates: How Will the US Special Operations Team Intervene in the South China Sea? Insights from Chinese and Philippine sources and analysts

Soldiers in rubber boats participate in the joint US-Philippines military exercise Balikatan in Palawan on April 30, 2024. Photo: VCG

The U.S. military recently announced its support for Philippine operations in the South China Sea through Task Force Ayungin, named after the Philippine term for China’s Ren’ai Jiao (also known as Ren’ai Reef). This initiative, according to Manila, will involve cooperation in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance efforts. What additional, lesser-known details exist about this task force? Why did the launch take place during such a sensitive period? To what extent can this support the Philippines’ provocations in the South China Sea? The Global Times conducted interviews with a Chinese expert who has been in contact with high-level sources in the Philippines, as well as a former deputy national security adviser of the Philippines, to gain deeper insights into the task force.

The announcement represents the latest example of US “fanning the flames” in the South China Sea. It also underlines the current Philippine government’s commitment to strengthening its strategic partnership with the US, said Ding Duo, deputy director of the Institute of Maritime Law and Policy of the China Institute for South China Sea Studies, who recently visited the US shut down. Philippines, where he contacted local sources familiar with the case.

“The U.S. task force will only hinder the peaceful resolution of disputes requiring direct dialogue, consultations and negotiations between the Philippines and China,” said Rommel C. Banlaoi, president of the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence, and Terrorism Research. an interview with the Global Times on Monday.

As former director of the Center for Intelligence and National Security Studies in the Philippines, Banlaoi The Global Times said this earlier that he is appalled by the current administration’s decision to increase the US military presence, which he believes undermines the balance in the Philippines’ relations with China and promotes clear pro-Americanism in foreign policy.

He pointed out that the Marcos administration is complicating efforts to improve relations between the Philippines and China and that these unilateral actions are counterproductive to peacefully resolving disputes with China.

Protesters hold banners during a protest against US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s visit to Manila, the Philippines, on February 2, 2023. Photo: VCG

What is the US Task Force?

According to Ding, local sources revealed that the US task force concept began taking shape in July 2024.

The idea for forming the US task force emerged after the direct serious clash between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea on June 17, when a Philippine supply boat ignored warnings from the Chinese side and entered the waters off the Chinese Ren’ai Jiao rushed in.

The US after the incident put forward the idea of ​​setting up a task force to the Philippines, which was subsequently accepted by the Philippine side.

Ding believes the formation of the US task force likely stemmed from concerns over the July 21 agreement between China and the Philippines on maritime disputes after the clash. The interim agreement made arrangements for the humanitarian delivery of essential supplies to the Philippine warship stranded at the Ren’ai Jiao. Both sides agree to jointly manage maritime disputes and promote the easing of tensions in the South China Sea.

The US task force was established around the same time as the interim agreement, suggesting the US is concerned the deal could hamper its strategic goals in the South China Sea, the expert said.

The task force consists of approximately 15 U.S. military personnel stationed on Palawan Island in the Philippines who regularly participate in training exercises with the Western Command (WesCom) under the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). These exercises are primarily aimed at providing personnel rotation and logistical support to the Philippine military ship illegally stranded at China’s Renai Jiao, Ding revealed to the Global Times.

Following the high-profile introduction of the US task force by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, both military and political officials from the US and the Philippines released statements. US Embassy spokesperson Kanishka Gangopadhyay said: “Task Force Ayungin enhances the coordination and interoperability of the US-Philippines alliance, allowing US forces to support Philippine forces in the South China Sea,” according to Reuters .

However, Philippine National Security Advisor Eduardo Ano stressed that the US Task Force Ayungin “will not directly participate in missions in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea),” as reported by Philippine GMA.

Ding revealed that specific tasks of the US task force include improving the coordination capabilities of both manned and unmanned military equipment and providing personnel training to the Philippines. The instructors for the so-called “Small Ship Defensive Tactics Course” conducted by the US Army for the Philippines in October this year were selected from this task force, Ding said.

The Philippine Media Inquirer reported that as part of the course, Philippine Coast Guardsmen (PCG) trained with U.S. special forces for nearly three weeks in Palawan on how to respond to “non-compliant vessels.”

Banlaoi said the US established the US Task Force to support the Philippine Armed Forces not only in rotation and redeployment missions, but also in protecting the Philippine presence in Ayungin Shoal (Ren’ai Jiao). “The US is providing operational training, intelligence sharing and situational assessment around the shoal, almost the same kind of support the US provided the Philippines during the 2017 siege of Marawi and the Global War on Terrorism from 2001-2010 to and with 2017. the Joint Special Operations Task Force – Philippines.”

Ding further noted that the unmanned equipment currently being delivered to the Philippines by the US task force includes at least four unmanned surface ships MANTAS T-12 and at least one T-38 Devil Ray, both of which come from Australian company Maritime Tactical Systems (MARTAC). ) American division.

According to a piece on an online news platform Straight Arrow News, Devil Rays can be used as a kind of mothership to relay signals to the T-12s. They can also be used as a weapon platform.

How much can it support Manila?

The Philippines’ maritime situational awareness capabilities remain relatively underdeveloped, a long-standing concern of the Philippine military. A December 2023 article by the US think tank Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative pointed out that “the Philippines faces significant gaps in maritime governance capacity, with shortcomings in maritime domain awareness being one of the main concerns.”

The US has provided substantial support to the Philippines in areas such as information sharing, situational awareness and engagement tactics to strengthen their capabilities.

Since 2021, the Philippines has been using the SeaVision program, a maritime situational awareness tool run by the U.S. Department of Transportation, at no cost. Currently, this system is used by the Philippine Coast Guard, Philippine Navy, Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, and National Coast Watch Center, as observed by Beijing-based think tank South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI). .

In May, the US and the Philippines issued a joint statement on Space Dialogue, announcing an intensification of cooperation in leveraging space for both maritime and space situational awareness. Moreover, under the ‘Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness Partnership’ between the US, Japan, India and Australia, the US is coordinating support for the Philippines from Japan, India and Australia, SCSPI said.

Many Philippine scholars argue that the security cooperation between the Philippines and the US is intended to strengthen the asymmetric advantage over China, allowing the implementation of surveillance missions targeting China’s maritime activities, Ding noted.

The Ayunjin task force has been interpreted by the Philippine media as a direct indication of US military assistance to the Philippines.

Banlaoi believes that the US task will benefit the Philippine military for operational support, intelligence gathering and tactical capacity building, but it politically hinders peaceful resolution of disputes between the Philippines and China.

By establishing the task force, the US sought to gain direct insight into the operational patterns of Chinese Coast Guard ships, thereby increasing their situational awareness and battlefield readiness. This move could be interpreted as a hidden intention by the US, Ding noted.

“It remains unclear whether the U.S. task force will expand in personnel and scope. The US could also use this opportunity to encourage the Philippines to provoke incidents at sea, such as conducting “freedom of navigation operations” against China or providing “escort services.” for Philippine supply ships in disputed areas, U.S. military personnel could observe aboard these ships under the guise of journalists or provide guidance for Philippine maritime operations,” he told the Global Times.

If the Philippines continues to provoke incidents through its strengthened alliance and external support, using “gray zone” tactics and challenging China’s South China Sea policy with misleading narratives, it risks to undermine constructive resolutions and manage disagreements, Ding points out.