Prepare for more ‘hard landings’ in the Middle East

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in what Iranian media initially described as a “hard landing.” The fact that Iranians celebrated with fireworks in Raisi’s hometown of Mashhad reflects the hatred with which Iranians view the regime that oppresses them. This should be a warning to the regime: Raisi is one thing, but when 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei experiences a hard landing, it will reignite the Iranians’ active quest for regime change.

The fact that the European Union is sending its condolences following the death of the Butcher of Tehran shows the moral blindness that is at the heart of European policy; this amounts to sending condolences following the death in 1942 of Reinhard Heydrich, acting governor of the German Reich in Bohemia and Moravia.

As the White House, State Department and CIA scramble to determine who could permanently replace Raisi (think former Revolutionary Guard leader and current Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf), the constant catch-up undermines the long-term effectiveness of the United States. A more productive approach might be to think about other hard landings looming in the near future, adjust U.S. strategy, and recognize cases where Washington has invested too much in one man.

Some transitions are so certain that it makes no sense to invest time in current leaders. Khamenei is partially paralyzed and openly battling cancer. It is foolish to assume that the ailing Ayatollah will be an anchor for stability. Prioritizing rapprochement with his regime rather than strengthening traditional alliances with countries like Israel, Egypt or Saudi Arabia is professional misconduct.

Then there is Mahmoud Abbas, the 88-year-old leader of the Palestinian Authority, currently serving the 20th year of his four-year term. The only difference between Abbas and his predecessor Yasser Arafat is that Arafat named a successor and Abbas refuses to do so. If the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations had not treated Abbas’s illegitimacy with a shrug, the question of the Palestinian Authority’s role in the future governance of Gaza would not be so futile.

Despite President Joe Biden’s initial reluctance toward his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the White House has become increasingly friendly and concerned toward the Turkish dictator. The most generous reading would be that Biden wants to keep his friends close and his enemies closer.

Erdogan, 70, may be a spring chicken next to Biden, but his health is no better. He once accidentally locked himself in his armored limousine during a seizure, and during his re-election campaign he had a cardiac “incident” that was caught on video; rumors are circulating that he also faced colon cancer.

Regardless of Erdogan’s death, the void Turkey will face after his nearly quarter-century rule will destabilize the country. Like Abbas, Erdogan leaves no clear successor, and so his son-in-law Bilal and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will clash while those marginalized by previous purges plot their own comeback.

Khamenei, Abbas and Erdogan may be obvious candidates for a “hard landing,” but what would happen if Jordan’s King Abdullah II or Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el Sisi suddenly found themselves on the wrong side of mortality? Could either pillar of stability crack? Egypt’s military would likely provide stability, but while Jordan has a crown prince ready to take the helm, its entire ruling family continues to lose legitimacy and popularity amid corruption and mismanagement. An overturned Jordan would be a nightmare scenario.

Likewise, as progressives in Congress criticize Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for his alleged role in the death of Jamal Khashoggi, a former Saudi intelligence and Muslim Brotherhood agent turned dissident writer, what could happen what if his father, sick and suffering from Alzheimer’s disease, suddenly shuffled the cards? put a traditionalist in charge? What might it mean for Washington if a new Saudi leader turned entirely to Moscow or Beijing, tired of Washington’s gratuitous insults?

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Ironically, the only transition Biden actually wants may be the least important. Biden looks down on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with the same resentment that a student in a community college class might look down on a Rhodes scholar. But Israel is a democracy and it delivers what its people want.

Israelis want security. Iranians want freedom. A better American strategy would be to pursue both.

Michael Rubin is a contributor to Washington Examiner Beltway Confidential Blog. He is director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.