Meet the BYU Student Helping the Texas Rangers Save Points and Win Big

Will Melville was sweating.

It was mid-July, but he barely noticed the heat. Melville was glued to his television screen, watching the Texas Rangers trot onto the field for a 2023 MLB regular season game against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

This wasn’t just another game. It was the first game in which the Rangers introduced an updated defensive field positioning strategy, based largely on Melville’s research as a doctoral student at BYU. Under the mentorship of computer science professors David Grimsman and Chris Archibald, Melville had spent months in the math bullpen, developing sophisticated formulas and equations to optimize the team’s field positions and prevent more races of opposing teams.

“It was nerve-wracking, but exciting,” he said.

To add to the tension, the Rangers were on a six-game winning streak and aiming for the World Series. Ask any coach and they’ll tell you that making significant adjustments to their defensive strategy mid-season isn’t something championship-level teams do often.

But Melville’s data was too good to ignore. The equations identified opportunities for the team, suggesting slight adjustments that would allow the outfielders to make crucial plays. He had taken into account everything from the speed and angle of the ball’s launch to the tendencies of each major league hitter. The equations, based on Bayesian statistics, would generate positioning recommendations for the Rangers coaching staff game after game.

And while defensive positioning isn’t new to baseball, Melville’s approach stands out because it incorporates game theory, a mathematical framework for decision-making. “As we adjust the defensive players, the hitter can see the changes and can try to hit where the defense is not,” he explained. “Even though hitting the ball is incredibly difficult and few hitters can truly adapt, we identified a select group who could. We developed an equilibrium positioning strategy, meaning that there is no batting strategy that an adaptable hitter can transition to that increases the number of expected hits.

According to his analysis, these changes could prevent 22.5 more runs than the MLB average — a calculated risk worth taking, especially as the pennant race heated up.

The bet paid off. The Rangers finished the year tied for first in the AL West division and won the World Series in dominant fashion, beating the Arizona Diamondbacks four games to one. Statistically, they finished seventh in MLB in DRS (defensive runs saved) and committed only 57 errors all season, a significant improvement from the previous year’s 96.

Melville, who worked remotely for the team while completing his doctorate in Provo, joined the club for the World Series games in Arlington.

“It was always stressful, but it was also an incredible experience to be with the whole organization and all working together towards a common goal,” says Melville. “And it’s amazing to see some of the best players in the world playing all over the field.”

When the Rangers blanked the Diamondbacks in Game 5, Melville finally breathed a sigh of relief. He relishes the opportunity to be part of a small, pennant-winning franchise. A self-proclaimed baseball enthusiast, his World Series ring now adorns his desk in his Provo home as he continues to work for the Rangers.

He credits BYU’s dedicated professors and mentors for recognizing his talents and steering him toward a profession that wasn’t on his radar.

“During my junior year, one of my professors mentioned that working in baseball and statistics would be an option for me and until then, I didn’t even know that type of career path existed.”

As a junior, Melville worked at BYU’s IDeA Lab and got his first chance to conduct baseball research. “That experience helped me stand out when I started applying for jobs in baseball,” he said.

After completing his dissertation, Melville plans to return to Texas and continue to fight in his role in the Rangers front office.

“BYU taught me to be humble and serve others. And I see these traits in my fellow Rangers. Everyone works hard and helps each other,” he says. “The lessons I learned at BYU helped me fit into the Rangers culture of being a good teammate and competing with passion.”