Lebanon Key Message Update: 2024 wheat harvest hampered by ongoing conflict in the South, May 2024 – Lebanon

Overall, population groups of concern include the remaining civilian population in villages along the conflict frontlines and displaced households in southern Lebanon with limited access to usual sources of food or income following a below-average harvest in southern Lebanon. In addition, high food prices and limited labor opportunities are expected to keep household purchasing capacity low despite the ongoing harvests. Refugee populations are also of great concern, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes likely to emerge in parts of Mount Lebanon and parts of the South, as many Lebanese and refugee households have access limited to income and food due to continued poor macroeconomic conditions. compounded by ongoing conflict and limited humanitarian assistance. In the North, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to appear with the start of the cereal harvest season, improving access to food, but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected. persist at least until September in areas where there are large numbers of refugees. large part of the population, such as in the Akkar and Bekaa regions, due to limited access to casual work opportunities to earn money to buy food.

Ongoing cross-border fighting between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah has displaced just over 94,000 people in southern Lebanon, with approximately three-quarters of the displaced coming from the Bint Jbeil district of El Nabatieh. Most of the displaced people are fleeing to safer areas of El Nabatieh, to the southern and Mount Lebanon governorates. In May, Israeli airstrikes reached areas near Baalbek and targeted the town of Majdal Anjar and the village of Safri in the eastern Bekaa Valley. More than 80 percent of displaced people are currently living in shelters across the country. Over the past seven months, ongoing cross-border violence has left 88 civilians dead and around 1,159 injured, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health. The Ministry of Agriculture also estimated that 1,240 hectares of land have been damaged and 340,000 farm animals lost since October 2023, with 72 percent of farmers surveyed in conflict-affected areas reporting a loss of income since 8 October 2023.

Many farmers in southern Lebanon, particularly in Marjayoun and Hasbaya, have started an early wheat harvest to avoid losing their crops to forest fires caused by airstrikes and phosphorus bombs near their lands, according to local information. The two districts normally supply the domestic market with about 30 percent of its annual wheat requirements; However, the Ministry of Agriculture estimates that only about 300,000 dunums (30,000 hectares) of wheat were grown nationally, with an expected yield of 125,000 tonnes, about 10 percent less than the USDA estimate. There are also reports of limited availability of agricultural labor in southern Lebanon, particularly in frontline border villages where many daily workers have already left or continue to avoid working in the fields. fear of being the target of airstrikes. Some farmers in Marjayoun also reported limited access to harvesting equipment, as large agricultural owners in the neighboring Bekaa Valley have been reluctant to rent equipment due to the ongoing conflict. As a result, many agricultural lands have not been cultivated or are not harvested for the 2024/25 marketing year. Conversely, there is increased competition for casual labor opportunities in the North as the harvest begins, as income-earning opportunities are limited.

The protracted economic and financial crisis of the past five years has led to a de facto dollarization of the Lebanese economy despite the efforts of the Bank of Lebanon to stabilize the Lebanese pound at 89,500 pounds to the dollar, which has slowed down interest rates. inflation in recent months. However, prices continue to rise despite the stable exchange rate. According to the World Bank, poverty has reached 44 percent over the past decade, with households increasingly dipping into their personal savings, seeking assistance from multiple sources, borrowing and reducing spending. According to key informants, poor households mainly work in the informal sector to earn income to buy food.

Inbound tourism fell 13.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, mainly due to Western tourists staying away amid a heightened state of alert since October 2023. Tourist activity in Lebanon reached a record level in the spring, due to the persistence of a broader regional situation. The conflict has likely reduced access to income for poor refugee and Lebanese households who normally rely on seasonal enhanced income from casual informal work opportunities such as construction, hotel maintenance, maintenance housekeeping and cleaning services. Despite an increase in the number of Arab tourists arriving in Lebanon during the recent Easter and Ramadan holidays (March-May), notably from Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq, and the continued presence of employees of NGOs and diplomats, nationals of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are more and more numerous. discouraged from visiting Lebanon. Declining tourist numbers are putting additional financial pressure on hotels, cafes and restaurants, among other local businesses, which are increasingly facing business challenges such as lack of credit lines and increased reliance on cash transactions since 2019.

In the North as in the South, most households continue to seek employment in agriculture or construction. Yet limited opportunities and increased competition limit poor refugees and Lebanese households’ access to these primary and secondary sources of income during the current agricultural season, amid reported cuts in humanitarian food aid since January 2024 In May, some poor agricultural households, particularly in the North, likely benefit from seasonally improved access to income from daily wages and other income opportunities on the farms of wealthier households, as well as from better-off households. access to food from their own agricultural production, coinciding with the start of the cereal harvest season. . Conversely, in the South, the dependence of poor agricultural households on market food purchases remains higher than normal due to the impact of the conflict on the 2023/24 agricultural season and below-normal economic activity despite limited seasonal improvements in food access with the harvest.