Can anyone stop Bryson DeChambeau from winning this US Open?

By Gabby Herzig, Brody Miller and Brendan Quinn

Bryson DeChambeau has circled his second major championship throughout 2024. He just might get it on Sunday.

DeChambeau’s third-round 67 moved him to 7-under par at the U.S. Open — and three shots ahead of the three men tied for second place. Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy and Matthieu Pavon will have 18 holes left to try to snatch victory at Pinehurst No. 2 from DeChambeau, who has not won a major since the 2020 US Open.

It was a dramatic Saturday at Pinehurst, with contenders rising and falling in the standings all day. Except DeChambeau, who made six birdies, a bogey and a double-bogey (at 17).

Can anyone top and win this US Open besides DeChambeau? Or is Sunday afternoon a coronation? Our golf team – Brendan Quinn, Brody Miller and Gabby Herzig – breaks it down before the final round.

Who is most likely to chase down DeChambeau?

Herzig: My heart says McIlroy has the best chance of chasing DeChambeau tomorrow, but my head says Pavon could produce fireworks no one saw coming on Sunday. Pavon may not have major championship experience, but he has shown he can pull off a miracle. Today I saw it up close. On the 13th hole, the Frenchman found himself with perhaps the worst lie we have seen in this championship. His ball was hidden from view, lodged directly behind a clump of grass. It was so bad that he considered trying to pull the next shot back. Pavon muscled up instead and left himself a 120-yard back-and-forth for par. He scored his third shot inside four feet and drained it.

It was risky. It was bold. It was indicative of the type of player Pavon is. A final pairing at the US Open on Sunday could trigger some unusual emotions for Pavon, but we could see some equally courageous shots on Sunday afternoon. Pavon won’t win, but I think he has the best chance to scare DeChambeau.

Miller: It’s who has the firepower to do it, right? Well, the only players to shoot a 66 or better this week and have another Rounds under par are McIlroy and Åberg. As confident as I felt about Åberg heading into that 13th hole, five shots just seemed too much. The best chance has to be McIlroy, the third-best player in the world (although I’m guessing DeChambeau takes that spot) who mixed his elite scoring ability with some really tough golf this week.

By Athleticism According to contributor Justin Ray, players who lead the US Open by three or more going into the final round are 22 of 34 (65%). That’s a much lower rate than one would expect, and just eight years ago we saw Shane Lowry blow a four-shot lead at Oakmont. It’s not over, and if anyone should do something to stop him, it’s McIlroy.

Quinn: The last time Bryson DeChambeau held a share of the lead heading into the final round of a four-round tournament? The 2021 BMW Championship. Remember? Valley of Caves? The duel with Patrick Cantlay? The two shots matching 66 that Sunday exchanged haymakers in a sudden-death playoff that took six holes to settle before Cantlay holed an 18-foot birdie putt that DeChambeau couldn’t match. This marks the popularization of the legendary Patty Ice.

Despite Cantlay’s brutal record at majors – just four top 10s (one top five) in 26 appearances – he has proven that, at his best, he can go when it counts and has won some epic duels. On Sunday, he will partner Rory McIlroy in a rematch of their Ryder Cup duel at Marco Simone, when Cantlay made the winning putt in a four-way match to silence the hat-waving European fans and spark the absurd scene of the caddy Joe Lacava infuriating. the whole euro side.

The fact is that Cantlay has that side. At his best, he is capable of beating anyone and has not been afraid in big moments. This is certainly enough. Cantlay ranks second in strokes gained putting this week and third in scrambling. Both will be needed Sunday at Pinehurst.

Who in the last two groups will absolutely not win?

Miller: Patrick Cantlay. I’m not even trying to hate. But his last two days were – admirably – spent working incredibly hard on difficult golf. And even in his impressive opening round of 65, Cantlay gained four strokes on the field with his short game, an unsustainable number that often indicates that his overall game wasn’t very composed.

Obviously, Cantlay is a better player overall than Pavon, but Pavon is probably playing golf with a higher ceiling than Cantlay this week. We must remember that it is now about firepower, not consistency.

Quinn: Look, it’s particularly cruel to neutralize Matthieu Pavon for no reason, but the 31-year-old Frenchman is not going to win. Ranked 137th in the world in Datagolf’s professional rankings, I fear he is on borrowed time. Pavon has cruised brilliantly at Pinehurst with just seven bogeys this week and nothing bigger on the card. Time may be up, though.

I hope I’m wrong.

Herzig: As exciting and satisfying as it is for the four-time major champion, I just don’t see McIlroy pulling out his fifth at No. 2 Pinehurst. We’ve seen this story before. McIlroy is about as close as he can get to ending his 10-year major drought, and he’s just staying flat. His putts are starting to be short. He fails to take advantage of his most promising birdie opportunities. He will come close for a moment – ​​pushing us even closer to the edge of our seats – only to let the championship slip away from us. Three shots is a tiny lead on this golf course. But for McIlroy, the deficit may not matter. If I had to guess, I think it’s already over for the Northern Irishman.

What is the winning score?

Quinn: The win total has improved from the third round in four of the last five US Opens – by two shots in 2019, by one shot in 2020 and 2021, by two shots in 2022 and unchanged in 2023. DeChambeau will play a conservative turn. and challenge other players to force the issue and come looking for it, assuming they will eventually intervene. If DeChambeau can manage a neat final round of 1-under 69, that would require someone posting a 66 or 65 to go and catch him. Only two players in the field Saturday — DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa — shot better than 67. And Sunday will likely present an even tougher test at Pinehurst.

So winning score: -8

The lowest number on Sunday, meanwhile, will be that of Tommy Fleetwood who will post a 62 at noon to tie the US Open score record.

Miller: Yes, it’s a US Open. Yes, Pinehurst is a beast that can destroy anyone’s day in seconds. But in the end, DeChambeau went 67-69-67, and he didn’t give us the slightest sign of a flaw that might come back on him. He played smart and responsible golf all week. He’s not going to go crazy with a three-shot lead all at once. If someone takes that from him, it might be because he shot a 65 or a 66.

Winning score: -8.

Herzig: All the players competing will think the same thing tomorrow: play in the middle of the fairway, then in the middle of the green. DeChambeau has been saying it all week: You have to play “boring” golf at this US Open. Players will remove long irons from tees and hit the larger portions of Pinehurst’s turtleback greens. The risk of aggressive play here is simply not worth the reward. For this reason, I think the winning score will be 7 under. An even-par score will be impressive for DeChambeau, and it will be up to the chasers to drain a few putts and try to catch him.

Does Bryson win?

Herzig: Yes. It’s time. DeChambeau was there at the Masters. He narrowly missed the playoff against Xander Schauffele at the PGA Championship. He’s got his 3D printed gear set up and he’s got some crowd support. Here at Pinehurst, DeChambeau’s roars hit differently — fans young and old have come to him and he can feel it. Overall, I just don’t see DeChambeau throwing this thing away. Thanks to his ball speed, he will have shorter irons on the greens than anyone else. His misses these days are never particularly costly. Plus, I don’t see anyone shooting low enough to threaten it. DeChambeau will win the 124th US Open.

Miller: Yes. Because he really earned it over the last 13 months. My man was lost, falling all the way to 134th in the world on DataGolf in 2023. He found something last May. He shot a 59 to win the LIV Greenbrier. And LIV Chicago a month later. Then he took a solo first-round lead at the Masters and fell a stroke short of the playoff at the PGA Championship. DeChambeau has truly come full circle and earned his way to this point, and it’s hard to deny that this is his moment.

(The wild card in all of this is how the course is set up tomorrow. If it’s easier, Bryson at seven. If it’s harder, that just means more volatility.)

Quinn: Twenty-two players have won multiple US Opens since the first edition of the national championship in 1895. DeChambeau will be the 23rd.

The moment that became crystal clear? When DeChambeau followed a potentially tournament-changing double-bogey on No. 16 with a cold-blooded dead iron batting the 207-yard par-3 17th. Following the double on 16 with a birdie could well become his postcard this week in the Sandhills. In truth, DeChambeau could play a conservative round on Sunday and shoot a 66 or 67 and make it more of a coronation than a celebration.

(Top photo by Bryson DeChambeau: Alex Slitz/Getty Images)