Will Nigel Farage launch his own “Stop the Steal” movement?

In a few weeks, the elections will be over. Although the details of the outcome will only be clear then, we can already spot trends. Labor is set to win big, while the right will be thrown into disarray. This will be partly explained by the clear disparity between the number of votes won by the Reform Party and the number of seats it will win. This could reduce the party’s parliamentary power but could fuel its arguments for the next legislature.

The reform aims to beat UKIP’s 2015 record and garner four million votes. It’s an audacious goal, but even if it fails, it will have the support of millions of British voters. However, when Parliament returns, they will be poorly represented. Nigel Farage could win in Clacton, but he will have few parliamentary colleagues.

The Lib Dems, with similar but more distributed support, could win 50 seats or more. The SNP, present only in Scotland, could win dozens of seats with less than a million and a half votes. Even with several million votes, it is still very likely that the Reform Party will end up with zero seats. However, a defeat against SMU could constitute another opportunity for the reformist leader.