The debt will reach a shocking $50 trillion by 2034, as Washington continues to spend, spend, spend.

As Congress and the presidential campaign continue as usual – promising more government handouts and big tax cuts – the government’s own accountants have once again revealed that the era of free economics is over .

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released new budget estimates showing that this year’s budget deficit will reach just under $2 trillion, nearly double the level of just two years ago, adjusted to accommodate taking into account the cancellation of the student loan bailout plan.

As a percentage of the economy, this year’s deficit will nearly match last year’s record, the largest deficit in American history outside of wars and recessions.

Having $2 trillion budget deficits in a growing economy is virtually unheard of.

And it’s going to get worse. Congressional rules require that CBO projections assume that all 2017 tax cuts will expire on schedule and that Congress will significantly reduce discretionary spending (yes, that’s true!).

The most realistic budget projections assume a continuation of current policies and show that budget deficits will reach a staggering $3.8 trillion within ten years.

Public debt would reach $50,000 billion by 2034, double what it is today. This represents a record 136% of the economy, eclipsing even World War II debt levels.

Tax revenue is not the main problem. Compared to usual levels, they are expected to be just 0.2% of GDP lower this year, and 0.6% of GDP below average in ten years if the 2017 tax cuts are extended.

Federal spending, on the other hand, is already 3.5% of GDP above its usual level and is expected to rise further to 5.6% of GDP above its average within a decade under policies current.

The combination of below-average tax revenues of 0.6% of GDP and above-average spending of 5.6% of GDP means that, compared to usual levels, 90% of the increase in the budget deficit over of the next decade will be due to galloping growth in spending.

The main driver of spending and the deficit is the retirement of 74 million baby boomers onto Social Security and Medicare.

Despite the common myth that these programs cannot run deficits, they will run a $630 billion deficit this year, which is expected to reach $1.6 trillion per year in ten years.

These growing budget deficits and deficits have made interest costs a ticking time bomb.

The combination of rising debt and interest rates has pushed interest costs from $352 billion in 2021 to $892 billion this year – on the way to nearly $2 trillion a year in ten years.

By next year, interest will surpass Medicare and become the second costliest federal expense after Social Security.

Ten years from now, interest charges will be 27% of all federal taxes – all you’ll pay in Washington through April 9. Such a waste.

And even those numbers are based on the CBO’s optimistic assumption that interest rates on the federal debt will not exceed 3.5 percent.

However, a third of the existing federal debt must be refinanced over the next year. If the federal debt continues to reach the 4.5% interest rate seen in recent Treasury auctions, the projected annual budget deficit will climb to $4.5 trillion within a decade.

At that point, 37% of all federal tax revenue would be devoted to interest on the debt – a debt that would approach 150% of GDP and then continue to climb to 300%.

These are the ingredients of a debt crisis.

Such a dire situation requires Washington’s attention. Instead, we are victims of complacency and messaging.

President Biden absurdly claims to have reduced budget deficits, even though the projected deficit for 2021-2031 has increased from $14.5 trillion to $21.3 trillion since he took office.

At the time, the CBO projected a deficit of $905 billion for 2024. It now projects $1.915 billion.

The president’s last budget proposed $5 trillion in painful tax increases over the decade — almost all of which would go toward new proposals rather than deficit reduction. This would force future deficit reduction initiatives to start from these higher tax levels.

The president also pledged to oppose any spending reforms aimed at closing Social Security and Medicare deficits that are driving deficits, even if the Social Security trust fund is ten years away insolvency and a mandatory benefit reduction of 21%.

The Republicans have also not taken deficits seriously, content to make meaningless talk about “waste, fraud and abuse”, while proposing a substantial increase in defense spending, more cuts in taxes, and also opposing meaningful reforms to keep Social Security and Medicare costs affordable.

Ultimately, these growing deficits are unsustainable, because the laws of economics and mathematics always win out in the end.

If Washington refuses to make the tough decisions to rein in this runaway red ink, then the bond market will eventually stop financing this debt at plausible interest rates.

The era of free economics is over, although politicians will be the last to learn it.

Brian Riedl is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Follow him on Twitter @Brian_Riedl.