Inspired by INDI-Alliance? How Trump could win the US elections by reversing the opposition’s strategy in India

In the recent 2024 Indian general elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s NDA alliance managed to secure a majority despite losing seats in key states such as Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Maharashtra. This was mainly due to the consolidation of voices from various communities and a broad coalition of opposition parties (INDI-Alliance), which posed a challenge for Modi. Nonetheless, the NDA alliance’s overall majority ensured Modi’s third term as prime minister.

In contrast, former US President Donald Trump is reportedly seeking to leverage a completely opposite strategy (that of the INDI-Alliance) to ensure victory in the upcoming US presidential elections. While many view the race as a simple contest between Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden, the entry of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) as an independent candidate complicates the scenario. RFK, the nephew of assassinated former President John F. Kennedy, originally sought the Democratic nomination. However, feeling neglected by the party that strongly supported Biden, RFK decided to run as an independent.

This development spells trouble for Biden, as RFK’s candidacy is expected to siphon off votes from Democratic voters who are unwilling to endure another term under Biden, but are also reluctant to support Trump. Unlike the successful voter consolidation seen in India, this three-way race could split the Democratic vote, benefiting Trump. Biden, already behind in the polls, faces a significant threat from RFK’s appeal to his electoral base.

The Democratic Party is fully aware of this risk and has launched its so-called program of militarization of the justice system, this time against RFK, in addition to its actions against Donald Trump. The Nevada Democratic Party is leading the effort to keep Kennedy off the presidential ballot, arguing that his affiliation with other political parties violates state requirements for independent candidates. If this lawsuit is successful, it could serve as a model for similar actions in other states with comparable laws.

Democrats filed a similar suit against Trump in an attempt to keep him off the ballot, but the Supreme Court later ruled in Trump’s favor, allowing him to continue his candidacy. Simultaneously, Trump faces another legal battle, led by a Democratic-backed New York prosecutor and judge in a case involving hush money payments to adult star Stormy Daniels. What was initially a misdemeanor under US law was increased to 34 counts, with the specific charges not disclosed to the public – a unique circumstance in US legal history.

According to a recent Rasmussen Reports survey, third-party candidates are seeing notable support, with RFK receiving 9%, Cornel West 2% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1%. In a head-to-head matchup, Trump leads Biden 49% to 40%, with 7% of voters opting for other candidates and 4% undecided.

Trump’s strategy relies on more Democrats shifting their support to RFK, thereby diluting Biden’s electoral base and increasing Trump’s chances of winning with a consolidated Republican vote. RFK has garnered support from Democratic voters who believe Joe Biden is unfit to run for another term due to concerns about his declining mental health. Biden’s alleged militarization of the justice system is also widely criticized by many Americans, including influential Wall Street figures. As the election approaches, the dynamics between these three candidates will significantly shape the outcome.