It's time for the Miami Heat to consider a shooter again in the NBA draft

MIAMI — If recency bias proves prevalent in the NBA Draft, the process that begins with Wednesday night’s first round could be as simple as teams, including the Miami Heat, doing their best.

As the Boston Celtics claw their way to the championship with a five-out approach heavily reliant on spacing and 3-point shooting, the two-day draft could turn into a referendum on catching a shooting star .

“It’s part of looking for a well-rounded player who can do as many things as he can,” said Adam Simon, the Heat’s vice president of basketball operations and assistant general manager, who is overseeing the draft. of the team.

And such prospects could potentially be there for the Heat if they maintain their spot at No. 15, including Kentucky’s Rob Dillingham, Duke guard Jared McCain, Colorado’s Tristan de Silva and University of Miami’s Kyshawn George.

When the Heat drafted Nikola Jovic 27th overall in 2022, it was with floor spacing in mind. That was also the case for Tyler Herro at 13th overall in 2019. But over the years, shooting hasn’t necessarily been the ultimate goal of the draft, at least not since Glen Rice was selected 4th overall in 1989, with Daequan Cook in 2007 among the exceptions.

Instead, the team’s shooting specialists have largely been developed or added as low-cost free agents, from Jason Kapono to James Jones to Wayne Ellington to Duncan Robinoson, and most recently Cole Swider on a two-way contract last season.

However, it could be argued that help is needed in this regard. Herro, the Heat’s leading 3-point shooter last season at .396, finished 46th in the NBA, with Duncan Robinson 49th at .395, Terry Rozier 108th at .363 and Kevin Love 138th at .344, among players with enough attempts to be ranked among the league leaders. (Jimmy Butler was .414 with just 60 conversions, Jovic was .399 on 65.)

As with other aspects of the draft, shooting is largely a matter of prediction, given that Tyrese Maxey entered the draft in 2020 hitting .292 on 3-pointers in his lone season at Kentucky, now up to .396 for his four seasons. NBA career with the Philadelphia 76ers.

“I think the challenge is we’re making decisions on players in the draft who could have played a year or two years and who could have been 30-plus percent shooters,” Simon said. “But there are a number of players who haven’t shot 30 percent that come into the NBA and become 38, 40, or over 40 percent shooters.

“That’s the challenge of the evaluation process, trying to evaluate a player and then rank him in your draft rankings based on his ability to be a high-level shooter at the college or international level before the draft.”

That’s where practices can come in handy, like the ones held for the Heat at the Kaseya Center, not necessarily to witness shots being knocked out, but to see if the mechanics are there. Heat workouts include shooting sessions with Noah Basketball’s computerized shot tracking system, a system that measures arc and other elements of a player’s release.

“We’re definitely watching their shot,” Simon said. “We analyze their shot and see if a player has a good shot and needs to be touched up, if it’s left, right. We have a Noah machine that tracks all of the players’ shots, their arcs and where they miss. So you can work with that.

But Simon said sometimes it also has to be a leap of faith, citing the shooting success of former Heat forward Shawn Marion, a four-time All-Star who basically threw the ball from his chest.

“Their shot, some need a lot of work,” Simon said of sorting through prospects. “But look, a guy like Shawn Marion had a very unorthodox stroke, but he did it.”

The reality, however, is that most of those who can’t shoot or don’t look like they can shoot rarely come, with a few exceptions, like Kawhi Leonard, who went from .250 as a college student at San Diego State in his career .391. in the NBA.

“Anyone can improve by developing their technique and repetitions,” Simon said. “But I think there are guys who are born to shoot, those guys are identified. The guy who can’t shoot, I think it’s not that easy.

“But I think that’s why you go to these workouts and these pro days, to try to see what their shot is like and if they can work on it.”