Are we prepared for an asteroid to hit Earth? NASA sees work to be done.

Is humanity ready to face an asteroid with a 72% chance of hitting Earth in 14 years?

Scientists and experts say there is work to be done.

When NASA presented the hypothetical scenario, designed by the Planetary Defense Coordination Office, to a group of nearly 100 government officials, they found that their plan for combating an asteroid hurtling toward Earth had several “gaps.” high-level,” according to a NASA slide presentation. . Space officials are “unwilling to rapidly implement necessary space missions” and methods for keeping the public informed of an impending disaster are not fully developed.

Among the participants, from federal agencies like the State Department and international bodies like the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs, 33 percent said humanity was not ready to launch a space mission to prevent an asteroid from impacting the planet, and 19% declared “a reconnaissance mission.” the missions” were not ready.

Kelly Fast, NASA’s acting planetary defense officer, said the exercise helped government agencies plan how they would work together to prepare for a future asteroid strike.

“In the unlikely event that we were faced with a scenario like this, it wouldn’t be the first time that someone has talked about how to deal with this,” she said.

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NASA conducts fifth test to assess asteroid readiness

The exercise, designed to test the government’s preparedness for an asteroid heading toward Earth, was organized by NASA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency during an April meeting at the Physics Laboratory applied Johns Hopkins in Laurel, Maryland, according to a press release. This was the fifth test to assess whether authorities are ready to defend Earth from space. This year’s exercise was the first to include “international collaborators for planetary defense.”

In the hypothetical scenario, an asteroid would collide with Earth in 2038. The collision would have a 47% chance of affecting more than 1,000 people and an 8% chance of affecting more than a million. It could affect many cities in the United States, Europe and Africa, including Washington, Dallas, Madrid and Algiers.

In the scenario, participants were not informed “about the size, composition, and long-term trajectory of the asteroid,” according to the press release. Further observations of the asteroid would also hypothetically be delayed by at least seven months as the asteroid passes behind the Sun – “a critical waste of time”.

Even with years to prepare, agencies would still have to work effectively to respond to an approaching asteroid, Fast said. “When you talk about planning a mission, no matter what type of mission a spacecraft has, it doesn’t happen in a hurry,” she said.

“Even though 14 years seems like a long time, it may not be when you think about mission development,” Fast added.

Space officials have only one tested method for knocking away an asteroid en route to Earth: “kinetic impact,” or crashing a spacecraft into the asteroid to change its trajectory. In 2022, NASA crashed a spacecraft onto Dimorphos, a small “moon” orbiting the asteroid Didymos about 6.8 million miles from Earth, successfully shortening the moon’s orbit by 32 minutes , according to NASA.

Fast said scientists would have to tailor a space mission to meet a particular asteroid collision scenario.

“It all depends on the asteroid,” she said. “A single kinetic impactor might work for a smaller asteroid but not for something much larger.”

Some attendees were also skeptical that sufficient federal funding would be available to address the threat, according to the presentation. The decision-making process was “unclear,” according to the statement.

Authorities would also have a limited ability to gather more information about the incoming asteroid by flying a spacecraft near it, the assessors concluded.

The presentation also warned that coordinating the release of information to the public about an asteroid flying toward the planet would pose problems. “We will have to fight against misinformation and disinformation,” they wrote.

“Maintaining trust early on in this event is critical and that means speaking early – probably earlier than scientists and lawyers feel comfortable with,” said another anonymous participant.

Fast said it would be important to “transform the information into something that is understandable to the public, and not be too technical and too jargony.”

The final exercise, which used the test data, recommended more testing of the new technology.

Fast said people should be reassured that scientists and agencies are coming together to strategize in the unlikely event of an asteroid collision.

The scenario was “just a chance to continue to explore these possibilities and our own readiness, and identify how we can do better in the future.”

“It’s actually a good thing to talk about,” she said.