Middle East and Asia Key Message Update, May 2024: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected to persist at least – Afghanistan

Key messages

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to persist in the northern, northeastern and western highlands of Afghanistan from May to September. After rainfall deficits at the start of the season, exceptionally heavy rains and flooding in May led to localized losses, although the 2024 national harvest is expected to be average. Similar food insecurity findings continue among some returnees from Iran and Pakistan, primarily in Kandahar, Kunar, and Nangarhar provinces due to limited work opportunities in Afghanistan. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist at least until September in the eastern and southern regions of the country due to harvesting during the current production season.
• Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist until at least September in western and northern areas controlled by the Sanaa-based authorities (SBA) of Yemen, where food aid provided by the WFP remains suspended. In the rest of the country, crisis (IPC Phase 3) and crisis results! (IPC Phase 3!) are expected throughout the projection period. The ongoing and intensified economic conflict between the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG) and the SBA continues to restrict economic activities, limiting food sources and household income opportunities. Economic challenges are most severe in IRG areas, where the local currency has lost 38 percent of its value over the past year, resulting in food and fuel prices more than 100 percent higher. higher than the four-year average. Additionally, extreme heat and prolonged power outages in IRG areas also force poor households to redirect their resources toward energy and healthcare instead of purchasing food.
• In LebanonCrisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to continue throughout the projection period in Mount Lebanon and southern regions due to ongoing conflict, which is disrupting household access to food and income. Additionally, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected among poor households in northern Akkar Governorate and poor and refugee households in the Bekaa region, where refugees outnumber hosts and where reductions in humanitarian aid have been reported. While ongoing harvests in northern regions have improved household access to food, limited work opportunities limit access to income. This situation is expected to persist throughout the projection period, maintaining Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes for poor households. The ongoing conflict in southern Lebanon’s frontline areas has displaced more than 94,000 people, mainly from Bint Jbeil district, El Nabatieh governorate, from October 2023 to May 2024. Employment opportunities in throughout the country have been constrained by the prolonged economic and financial crisis, coupled with the decline of the tourism industry due to the ongoing conflict between the Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah. A 30% drop in production in the main production areas of the south and limited employment opportunities are limiting access to food and income for displaced households in a context of above-average food prices in areas of the south. displacement and in the safer areas of El Nabatieh and Mount Lebanon.
• While Gaza is not a regularly monitored FEWS NET country and is therefore not typically included in regional summaries, FEWS NET’s focused analyses on Gaza can be found here. To prevent widespread loss of life, an immediate cessation of hostilities is needed, alongside a large-scale, multisectoral response with unrestricted access to populations in need.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Middle East and Asia Key Message Update, May 2024: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through at least 2024.

Updating key messages

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